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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489388

World Cup·Group Stage - 2
Mexico crest
MexicoHOME
1:0
Match Finished
HT 0-0
South Korea crest
South KoreaAWAY
Fri, Jun 19 · 01:00 UTCEstadio Akron, Guadalajara21°CRefereeGustavo Tejera, Uruguay◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Mexico (67%)✓ Hit

Home

Mexico

96%

Draw

Draw

4%

Away

South Korea

0%

Model call: Mexico

Expected goals: 1.1—0.1(total 1.2)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 1–0Home win67%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 19

Mexico

1

FT

South Korea

0

Model called (T−24h)

Mexico (67%)

Actually happened

Mexico (67%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine favored Mexico (67%), and the live read grew to 96% by the 75-minute checkpoint as the match bore it out. Final: 1-0, a Mexico win.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was Mexico, so this match is a hit in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Mexico

4-3-3
  1. J. RangelG
  2. J. GallardoD
  3. Johan VásquezD
  4. E. ÁlvarezD
  5. J. SánchezD
  6. B. GutierrezM
  7. É. LiraM
  8. L. RomoM
  9. J. QuiñonesF
  10. R. JiménezF
  11. R. AlvaradoF

South Korea

3-4-2-1
  1. Kim Seung-GyuG
  2. Lee Gi-HyukD
  3. Min-jae KimD
  4. Lee Han-BeomD
  5. Kim Moon-HwanM
  6. Paik Seung-HoM
  7. Hwang In-BeomM
  8. Seol Yung-WooM
  9. Lee Jae-SungF
  10. Lee Kang-InF
  11. Son Heung-MinF

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-16T15:30:17.179Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

a09d665f066b21ccb9fb06e136fe4478604136a549f6a6302efe13404bc8cead
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

Verify yourself via the API.

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