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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489389

World Cup·Group Stage - 2
Brazil crest
BrazilHOME
3:0
Match Finished
HT 3-0
Haiti crest
HaitiAWAY
Sat, Jun 20 · 00:30 UTCLincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia26°CRefereeAlejandro Hernandez, Spain◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Data confidence 5 out of 5 confidence
Strongwas our pre-kickoff conviction
✓ Hit

This band (top prob 65%–70%) has hit 67.0% before kickoff — 27,274 of 40,717 graded calls. Calibrated, audited, zero odds input.

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Brazil (67%)✓ Hit

Home

Brazil

100%

Draw

Draw

0%

Away

Haiti

0%

Model call: Brazil

Expected goals: 3.4—0.1(total 3.5)
Upset risk: 2/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 3–0Home win67%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 20

Brazil

3

FT

Haiti

0

Model called (T−24h)

Brazil (67%)

Actually happened

Brazil (67%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine favored Brazil (67%), and the live read grew to 100% by the 75-minute checkpoint as the match bore it out. Final: 3-0, a Brazil win.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was Brazil, so this match is a hit in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Brazil

4-2-3-1
  1. AlissonG
  2. Douglas SantosD
  3. GabrielD
  4. MarquinhosD
  5. DaniloD
  6. CasemiroM
  7. Bruno GuimarãesM
  8. Vinícius JúniorM
  9. Lucas PaquetáM
  10. RaphinhaM
  11. Matheus CunhaF

Haiti

5-4-1
  1. J. PlacideG
  2. Player 190747D
  3. H. DelcroixD
  4. J. DuverneD
  5. Player 12303D
  6. C. ArcusD
  7. R. ProvidenceM
  8. Jean-Ricner BellegardeM
  9. D. Jean JacquesM
  10. Josué CasimirM
  11. F. PierrotF

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-17T18:30:17.305Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

6bcbf041545e8b98c4ca1263872b8bf52aebb78d8dfa6cf46423d480b1ea1e53
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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