Skip to main content
← All reports

SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489390

World Cup·Group Stage - 2
Scotland crest
ScotlandHOME
0:1
Match Finished
HT 0-1
Morocco crest
MoroccoAWAY
Fri, Jun 19 · 22:00 UTCGillette Stadium, Boston25°CRefereeIlgiz Tantashev, Uzbekistan◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Data confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Morocco (44%)✓ Hit

Home

Scotland

0%

Draw

Draw

2%

Away

Morocco

98%

Model call: Morocco

Expected goals: 0.0—1.0(total 1.0)
Upset risk: 6/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 0–1Away win30%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 20

Scotland

0

FT

Morocco

1

Model called (T−24h)

Morocco (44%)

Actually happened

Morocco (44%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine favored Morocco (44%), and the live read grew to 98% by the 75-minute checkpoint as the match bore it out. Final: 0-1, a Morocco win.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was Morocco (a lean, not a strong call), so this match is a hit in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Scotland

3-4-2-1
  1. A. GunnG
  2. K. TierneyD
  3. J. HendryD
  4. G. HanleyD
  5. A. RobertsonM
  6. L. FergusonM
  7. S. McTominayM
  8. Nathan PattersonM
  9. R. ChristieF
  10. J. McGinnF
  11. C. AdamsF

Morocco

4-2-3-1
  1. Y. BounouG
  2. N. MazraouiD
  3. C. RiadD
  4. I. DiopD
  5. A. HakimiD
  6. Ayyoub BouaddiM
  7. Neil El AynaouiM
  8. B. El KhannoussM
  9. A. OunahiM
  10. Brahim DíazM
  11. I. SaibariF

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-17T12:30:10.597Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

7ad18d910ff753c384f0dbcbc75514a7bf7af110826af4b524ce349d2ef1e9b2
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

Verify yourself via the API.

How the model works →Unlock the full report →