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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489391

World Cup·Group Stage - 2
USA crest
USAHOME
2:0
Match Finished
HT 2-0
Australia crest
AustraliaAWAY
Fri, Jun 19 · 19:00 UTCLumen Field, Seattle23°CRefereeFelix Zwayer, Germany◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Data confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

USA (37%)✓ Hit

Home

USA

99%

Draw

Draw

1%

Away

Australia

0%

Model call: USA

Expected goals: 2.1—0.2(total 2.4)
Upset risk: 6/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 2–0Home win37%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 19

USA

2

FT

Australia

0

Model called (T−24h)

USA (37%)

Actually happened

USA (37%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine favored USA (37%), and the live read grew to 99% by the 75-minute checkpoint as the match bore it out. Final: 2-0, a USA win.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was USA (a lean, not a strong call), so this match is a hit in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

USA

4-2-3-1
  1. M. FreeseG
  2. A. RobinsonD
  3. T. ReamD
  4. C. RichardsD
  5. A. FreemanD
  6. T. AdamsM
  7. M. TillmanM
  8. R. PepiM
  9. W. McKennieM
  10. S. DestM
  11. F. BalogunF

Australia

5-4-1
  1. P. BeachG
  2. J. BosD
  3. Cameron BurgessD
  4. Harry SouttarD
  5. Alessandro CircatiD
  6. J. ItalianoD
  7. N. VelupillayM
  8. Paul Michael Junior Okon-EngstlerM
  9. A. O'NeillM
  10. M. LeckieM
  11. M. TouréF

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-17T15:30:10.499Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

4839980e3a0374cdb5367e971d1f3267c4aa204eaa50b1f7491c081b2d24fcd0
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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