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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1489397

World Cup·Group Stage - 2
Spain crest
SpainHOME
4:0
Match Finished
HT 3-0
Saudi Arabia crest
Saudi ArabiaAWAY
Sun, Jun 21 · 16:00 UTCMercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta26°CRefereeRaphael Claus, Brazil◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Data confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Spain (62%)✓ Hit

Home

Spain

100%

Draw

Draw

0%

Away

Saudi Arabia

0%

Model call: Spain

Expected goals: 4.3—0.1(total 4.3)
Upset risk: 2/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 4–0Home win62%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 21

Spain

4

FT

Saudi Arabia

0

Model called (T−24h)

Spain (62%)

Actually happened

Spain (62%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine favored Spain (62%), and the live read grew to 100% by the 75-minute checkpoint as the match bore it out. Final: 4-0, a Spain win.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was Spain, so this match is a hit in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Spain

4-2-3-1
  1. Unai SimónG
  2. Marc CucurellaD
  3. Aymeric LaporteD
  4. Pau CubarsíD
  5. Pedro PorroD
  6. RodriM
  7. PedriM
  8. Álex BaenaM
  9. Dani OlmoM
  10. Lamine YamalM
  11. Mikel OyarzabalF

Saudi Arabia

5-3-2
  1. Mohammed Al OwaisG
  2. Moteb Al HarbiD
  3. Abdulelah Al AmriD
  4. Ali LajamiD
  5. Hassan TambaktiD
  6. Saud AbdulhamidD
  7. Musab Al JuwayrM
  8. Abdullah Al KhaibariM
  9. Nasser Al DawsariM
  10. Salem Al DawsariF
  11. Firas Al BrikanF

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-19T06:31:59.587Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

9161680b520e08270d379f284c5dd29f10916bea396adfaffec6ee05d85289b4
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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