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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1493521

USL Championship·
Monterey Bay crest
Monterey BayHOME
4:1
Match Finished
HT 2-0
Loudoun United crest
Loudoun UnitedAWAY
Sun, May 31 · 02:00 UTCCardinale Stadium14°CRefereeB. Stevis◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 1 out of 5 confidence

Home

Monterey Bay

39%

Draw

Draw

24%

Away

Loudoun United

37%

Lean: Monterey Bay · close call (2pp margin)

Expected goals: 1.0—1.0(total 2.0)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%—48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 1

Monterey Bay

4

FT

Loudoun United

1

Model called (T−24h)

Monterey Bay (40%)

Actually happened

Monterey Bay (40%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Monterey Bay

  1. J. Jackson
  2. Player 540917
  3. N. Gordon
  4. Z. Farnsworth
  5. O. Glasgow
  6. Player 411181
  7. Player 71189
  8. Player 579192
  9. S. Lletget
  10. Player 540764
  11. Ilijah Paul

Loudoun United

  1. E. Bandré
  2. N. Adnan
  3. A. Essengue
  4. Salvatore Mazzaferro
  5. Player 78418
  6. Player 541045
  7. Player 540995
  8. Player 541055
  9. Player 610434
  10. Pedro Santos
  11. T. Ulfarsson

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Lineup Absence Impact

Lineup confirmed shortly before kickoff

SPX Quant Engine

Beyond Match Outcome

Predictions not yet available for this match

SPX Quant Engine

Shot Creation Profile

Not enough recent-match history to build a shot-creation profile for these teams yet.

SPX Quant Engine

Shot Quality

Shot quality data unavailable for this fixture

SPX Quant Engine

Pass Network

Pass network data unavailable for this fixture

SPX Quant Engine

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-09T02:36:46.517Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

dbb4686e5a4c3aa772918c299cac3cea4402d3a12407e268ec69c117c451e705
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.01 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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