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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1494186

Allsvenskan·
Degerfors IF crest
Degerfors IFHOME
2:2
Match Finished
HT 0-1
IF Brommapojkarna crest
IF BrommapojkarnaAWAY
Sun, May 31 · 12:00 UTCStora Valla22°CRefereeMohammed Al-Hakim, Sweden◆ SPX ✗ Miss

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 2 out of 5 confidence

Home

Degerfors IF

42%

Draw

Draw

29%

Away

IF Brommapojkarna

29%

Lean: Degerfors IF

Expected goals: 1.1—0.9(total 2.0)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%—48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
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✗ MissFinal score · graded Jun 1

Degerfors IF

2

FT

IF Brommapojkarna

2

Model called (T−24h)

Degerfors IF (42%)

Actually happened

Draw (28%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Degerfors IF

4-4-2
  1. M. IgonenG
  2. E. LindellD
  3. J. PikkarainenD
  4. S. OhlssonD
  5. L. FritzsonD
  6. M. RaffertyM
  7. Kazper KarlssonM
  8. E. BarsoumM
  9. N. GirmaiM
  10. A. TaranisF
  11. D. VukojevićF

IF Brommapojkarna

4-4-2
  1. L. CavalliusG
  2. O. ZandénD
  3. Player 346534D
  4. J. Simpson
  5. R. ÖrqvistD
  6. S. OppongM
  7. K. BarslundM
  8. S. StrandM
  9. M. HansenM
  10. O. BergF
  11. L. BjörklundF

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Lineup Absence Impact

Key absentees and how unbalanced the missing-star count is between sides.

Degerfors IF
0stars missing
IF Brommapojkarna
0stars missing

Degerfors IF · key absences

No notable absences reported

IF Brommapojkarna · key absences

  • R. Örqvist

    Midfielder · 444 days out

    6.64
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Beyond Match Outcome

Forward-looking analytics on corners and cards — beyond the 1X2 result market.

Corners

Expected total
10.8expected corners
Home 6.1Away 4.7
Over 9.5 corners64%
Over 10.5 corners52%

SPX commitment — no bookmaker odds shown

Cards

Expected total
3.6expected cards
Average ref
Home 1.8Away 1.8
Over 4.5 cards29%
Over 5.5 cards15%

SPX commitment — no bookmaker odds shown

SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Shot Creation Profile

Not enough recent-match history to build a shot-creation profile for these teams yet.

SPX Quant Engine

Shot Quality

Each bubble = one player. Size scales with the SPX shot-quality estimate.

Degerfors IFIF Brommapojkarna
0123450'15'30'45'60'75'90'Minutes playedShotsS. Oppong (M) — 3 shots, 2 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.40O. Berg (F) — 3 shots, 2 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.401M. Rafferty (M) — 3 shots, 2 on target, 1 goal, est. SPX xG 0.401S. Strand (M) — 2 shots, 1 on target, 1 goal, est. SPX xG 0.22Elton Hedstrom (F) — 2 shots, 2 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.36Kazper Karlsson (M) — 2 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.08Player #346534 (D) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.041M. Hansen (M) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 1 goal, est. SPX xG 0.18L. Björklund (F) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.18J. Pikkarainen (D) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04E. Barsoum (M) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04Player #342528 (M) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Pass Network

Pass volume vs completion rate. Bubble size scales with minutes played.

Degerfors IFIF Brommapojkarna
0%25%50%75%100%020406080Passes attemptedAccuracyL. Cavallius (G) — 29 passes, 24 completed (83%), 1 keyR. Örqvist (D) — 39 passes, 33 completed (85%), 1 keyPlayer #371407 (D) — 82 passes, 70 completed (85%), 0 keyPlayer #346534 (D) — 76 passes, 70 completed (92%), 1 keyO. Zandén (D) — 76 passes, 61 completed (80%), 1 keyM. Hansen (M) — 43 passes, 36 completed (84%), 2 keyS. Strand (M) — 45 passes, 38 completed (84%), 0 keyK. Barslund (M) — 50 passes, 45 completed (90%), 1 keyS. Oppong (M) — 26 passes, 24 completed (92%), 1 keyL. Björklund (F) — 15 passes, 12 completed (80%), 2 keyO. Berg (F) — 57 passes, 54 completed (95%), 4 keyElton Hedstrom (F) — 2 passes, 2 completed (100%), 0 keyE. Botchway (M) — 2 passes, 1 completed (50%), 0 keyM. Igonen (G) — 32 passes, 24 completed (75%), 0 keyL. Fritzson (D) — 29 passes, 17 completed (59%), 0 keyS. Ohlsson (D) — 57 passes, 48 completed (84%), 0 keyJ. Pikkarainen (D) — 48 passes, 39 completed (81%), 1 keyE. Lindell (D) — 7 passes, 6 completed (86%), 0 keyN. Girmai (M) — 39 passes, 31 completed (79%), 3 keyE. Barsoum (M) — 37 passes, 34 completed (92%), 0 keyKazper Karlsson (M) — 52 passes, 46 completed (88%), 0 keyM. Rafferty (M) — 26 passes, 24 completed (92%), 2 keyD. Vukojević (F) — 10 passes, 7 completed (70%), 1 keyA. Taranis (F) — 13 passes, 11 completed (85%), 0 keyPlayer #563401 (D) — 8 passes, 7 completed (88%), 1 keyPlayer #342528 (M) — 17 passes, 14 completed (82%), 0 keyB. Hussein (M) — 16 passes, 14 completed (88%), 0 keyPlayer #625542 (F) — 3 passes, 2 completed (67%), 0 key
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-09T02:36:46.517Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

fd8dbd69bd4cc265bd6995cc5b41af0dde5ca1a82d5198485396dac93eb6ae69
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.01 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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