Skip to main content
← All reports

SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1494188

Allsvenskan·
BK Hacken crest
BK HackenHOME
3:2
Match Finished
HT 0-2
Hammarby FF crest
Hammarby FFAWAY
Sun, May 31 · 12:00 UTCNordic Wellness Arena18°CRefereeTess Olofsson, Sweden◆ SPX ✗ Miss

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 1 out of 5 confidence

Home

BK Hacken

33%

Draw

Draw

33%

Away

Hammarby FF

35%

Lean: Hammarby FF · close call (2pp margin)

Expected goals: 1.0—1.0(total 2.0)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%—48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✗ MissFinal score · graded Jun 1

BK Hacken

3

FT

Hammarby FF

2

Model called (T−24h)

Hammarby FF (37%)

Actually happened

BK Hacken (33%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

BK Hacken

4-2-3-1
  1. A. LindeG
  2. A. LundkvistD
  3. O. SamuelssonD
  4. H. HilveniusD
  5. B. WembangomoD
  6. A. DoumbiaM
  7. S. AndersenM
  8. J. LindbergM
  9. M. RygaardM
  10. A. LayouniM
  11. G. LindgrenF

Hammarby FF

4-2-3-1
  1. Warner HahnG
  2. N. PerssonD
  3. Frederik WintherD
  4. Victor ErikssonD
  5. Hampus SkoglundD
  6. Tesfaldet TekieM
  7. Markus KarlssonM
  8. V. LindM
  9. Nahir BesaraM
  10. Montader MadjedM
  11. Paulos AbrahamF

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Lineup Absence Impact

Key absentees and how unbalanced the missing-star count is between sides.

BK Hacken
1star missing
Hammarby FF
0stars missing

BK Hacken · key absences

  • J. Hammar

    Defender · 443 days out

    6.85

  • F. Helander

    Defender · 441 days out

    6.67

Hammarby FF · key absences

  • D. Collander

    Midfielder · 619 days out

SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Beyond Match Outcome

Forward-looking analytics on corners and cards — beyond the 1X2 result market.

Corners

Expected total
10.6expected corners
Home 5.6Away 5.0
Over 9.5 corners62%
Over 10.5 corners49%

SPX commitment — no bookmaker odds shown

Cards

Expected total
4.0expected cards
Average ref
Home 2.0Away 2.0
Over 4.5 cards37%
Over 5.5 cards21%

SPX commitment — no bookmaker odds shown

SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Shot Creation Profile

Not enough recent-match history to build a shot-creation profile for these teams yet.

SPX Quant Engine

Shot Quality

Each bubble = one player. Size scales with the SPX shot-quality estimate.

BK HackenHammarby FF
02460'15'30'45'60'75'90'Minutes playedShots2V. Lind (M) — 6 shots, 4 on target, 2 goals, est. SPX xG 0.801S. Andersen (M) — 4 shots, 2 on target, 1 goal, est. SPX xG 0.44Nahir Besara (M) — 3 shots, 2 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.40J. Lindberg (M) — 3 shots, 3 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.54Tesfaldet Tekie (M) — 2 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.08Paulos Abraham (F) — 2 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.22A. Lundkvist (D) — 2 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.081A. Layouni (M) — 2 shots, 1 on target, 1 goal, est. SPX xG 0.22N. Persson (D) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04M. Rygaard (M) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04G. Lindgren (F) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.041A. Svanback (F) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 1 goal, est. SPX xG 0.18
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Pass Network

Pass volume vs completion rate. Bubble size scales with minutes played.

BK HackenHammarby FF
0%25%50%75%100%020406080Passes attemptedAccuracyWarner Hahn (G) — 40 passes, 27 completed (68%), 0 keyHampus Skoglund (D) — 52 passes, 44 completed (85%), 1 keyVictor Eriksson (D) — 50 passes, 44 completed (88%), 0 keyFrederik Winther (D) — 82 passes, 72 completed (88%), 0 keyN. Persson (D) — 43 passes, 33 completed (77%), 0 keyMarkus Karlsson (M) — 50 passes, 46 completed (92%), 2 keyTesfaldet Tekie (M) — 50 passes, 43 completed (86%), 0 keyMontader Madjed (M) — 19 passes, 18 completed (95%), 1 keyNahir Besara (M) — 38 passes, 32 completed (84%), 3 keyV. Lind (M) — 42 passes, 32 completed (76%), 1 keyPaulos Abraham (F) — 23 passes, 19 completed (83%), 3 keyOscar Johansson Schellhas (M) — 7 passes, 7 completed (100%), 0 keyO. Hagen (F) — 6 passes, 3 completed (50%), 0 keyD. Collander (M) — 2 passes, 2 completed (100%), 0 keyA. Linde (G) — 31 passes, 16 completed (52%), 0 keyB. Wembangomo (D) — 42 passes, 34 completed (81%), 0 keyH. Hilvenius (D) — 37 passes, 32 completed (86%), 0 keyO. Samuelsson (D) — 46 passes, 39 completed (85%), 2 keyA. Lundkvist (D) — 26 passes, 22 completed (85%), 3 keyS. Andersen (M) — 45 passes, 36 completed (80%), 1 keyA. Doumbia (M) — 40 passes, 33 completed (83%), 0 keyA. Layouni (M) — 23 passes, 17 completed (74%), 2 keyM. Rygaard (M) — 24 passes, 18 completed (75%), 0 keyJ. Lindberg (M) — 37 passes, 29 completed (78%), 3 keyG. Lindgren (F) — 23 passes, 20 completed (87%), 2 keyA. Svanback (F) — 8 passes, 5 completed (63%), 1 keyJ. Agbonifo (F) — 5 passes, 4 completed (80%), 1 key
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-09T02:36:46.517Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

08a64182d3989cd09a047198f66c60bcb533d374c3a0308c9a5b7a0a71fc22a9
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.01 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

Verify yourself via the API.

How the model works →