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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1495699

Veikkausliiga·Regular Season - 10
FF Jaro crest
FF JaroHOME
2:5
Match Finished
HT 2-1
HJK Helsinki crest
HJK HelsinkiAWAY
Sat, Jun 13 · 14:00 UTCProject Liv Arena, Pietarsaari19°CRefereeMohammad Al-Emara, Finland◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

HJK Helsinki (34%)✓ Hit

Home

FF Jaro

0%

Draw

Draw

0%

Away

HJK Helsinki

100%

Model call: HJK Helsinki

Expected goals: 2.0—5.1(total 7.1)
Upset risk: 6/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 2–5Away win33%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 13

FF Jaro

2

FT

HJK Helsinki

5

Model called (T−24h)

HJK Helsinki (100%)

Actually happened

HJK Helsinki (100%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

FF Jaro

3-4-2-1
  1. Player 79150G
  2. Player 55647D
  3. E. GunnarssonD
  4. Player 57395D
  5. Player 544736D
  6. Player 345325M
  7. J. SkauD
  8. Player 196365D
  9. Mats PedersenM
  10. H. SjögrellF
  11. Player 361422M

HJK Helsinki

4-2-3-1
  1. Player 550649G
  2. Leonel MontanoD
  3. Ville TikkanenD
  4. Player 270584D
  5. B. Lyons-FosterD
  6. Jere KallinenM
  7. L. LingmanM
  8. Player 444974M
  9. Alexander RingM
  10. L. LappalainenM
  11. Teemu PukkiF

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-11T22:57:41.716Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

9c3d5aa88f0055b29b6d3a3c1306f64fbf2a5bc7514d384030c88d3f3db83cb0
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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