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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1495702

Veikkausliiga·Regular Season - 10
Mariehamn crest
MariehamnHOME
0:3
Match Finished
HT 0-2
Gnistan crest
GnistanAWAY
Sat, Jun 13 · 16:00 UTCRefereeOliver Reitala, Finland◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Mariehamn (36%)✗ Miss

Home

Mariehamn

0%

Draw

Draw

0%

Away

Gnistan

100%

Model call: Gnistan

Expected goals: 0.1—3.1(total 3.1)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 0–3Away win36%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 13

Mariehamn

0

FT

Gnistan

3

Model called (T−24h)

Gnistan (100%)

Actually happened

Gnistan (100%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Mariehamn

3-4-2-1
  1. Player 472447G
  2. Player 194843D
  3. N. NurmiD
  4. Player 144728D
  5. Player 590120D
  6. N. DosisM
  7. A. StroudM
  8. Jiri NissinenD
  9. Player 55852M
  10. S. DahlströmM
  11. Player 107249F

Gnistan

4-4-2
  1. Á. CraninxG
  2. Player 635066F
  3. Ayo ObileyeD
  4. Player 546330D
  5. Otto HannulaM
  6. Player 55733F
  7. Player 410218M
  8. Player 560607M
  9. R. EremenkoM
  10. Adeleke Akinola AkinyemiF
  11. S. YlätupaF

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-11T22:57:55.570Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

83f70536425d15f54a00c1d773e02868d17db904559155bafd3b413d6358ca1e
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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