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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1495703

Veikkausliiga·Regular Season - 11
AC Oulu crest
AC OuluHOME
2:1
Match Finished
HT 0-0
Mariehamn crest
MariehamnAWAY
Thu, Jun 18 · 09:59 UTCRaatin stadion, Oulu13°CRefereeJuuso Vuorinen, Finland◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Data confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

AC Oulu (42%)✓ Hit

In-play peak · live read

Draw 89%75'

Home

AC Oulu

4%

Draw

Draw

89%

Away

Mariehamn

7%

Model call: Draw

Expected goals: 1.1—1.0(total 2.1)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%90' — AC OuluFT · 2–1Home win42%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 18

AC Oulu

2

FT

Mariehamn

1

Model called (T−24h)

AC Oulu (42%)

Actually happened

AC Oulu (42%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine called a AC Oulu win (42%), and held that read through to the whistle. Final: 2-1.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was AC Oulu (a lean, not a strong call), so this match is a hit in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

AC Oulu

3-4-3
  1. Player 43100G
  2. J. PirinenD
  3. Alex LietsaD
  4. Player 154878D
  5. Player 560608M
  6. Player 366131M
  7. Player 412701M
  8. Player 55528M
  9. Rasmus KarjalainenM
  10. Player 392480F
  11. L. GhezaliM

Mariehamn

4-2-3-1
  1. Player 472447G
  2. Player 590120D
  3. N. NurmiD
  4. Player 144728D
  5. A. StroudM
  6. Player 279983M
  7. S. DahlströmM
  8. Player 55852M
  9. Player 584312F
  10. Jiri NissinenD
  11. Player 107249F

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-16T00:00:32.040Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

9883e7e10b564b3844eeb44e086fe9c426fe6d4476bd7627421aff63b2126b07
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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