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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1495704

Veikkausliiga·Regular Season - 11
HJK Helsinki crest
HJK HelsinkiHOME
3:3
Match Finished
HT 1-2
Inter Turku crest
Inter TurkuAWAY
Wed, Jun 17 · 15:00 UTCBolt Arena, Helsinki16°CRefereePeiman Simani, Finland◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Data confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Draw (43%)✓ Hit

In-play peak · live read

Inter Turku 97%75'

Home

HJK Helsinki

0%

Draw

Draw

3%

Away

Inter Turku

97%

Model call: Inter Turku

Expected goals: 2.1—3.0(total 5.1)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%90' — HJK HelsinkiFT · 3–3Draw30%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 17

HJK Helsinki

3

FT

Inter Turku

3

Model called (T−24h)

Draw (43%)

Actually happened

Draw (43%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine called a draw (43%), and held that read through to the whistle. Final: 3-3.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was a draw (a lean, not a strong call), so this match is a hit in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

On that 97%: across matches where the Engine has read ~95%+, the favorite goes on to win ≈98% of the time. This was one of the rare late swings that didn't.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

HJK Helsinki

4-3-3
  1. Player 550649G
  2. Leonel MontanoD
  3. Ville TikkanenD
  4. T. CissokhoD
  5. M. YlitolvaD
  6. Jere KallinenM
  7. Alexander RingM
  8. L. LingmanM
  9. M. BorchersF
  10. Teemu PukkiF
  11. Player 546389M

Inter Turku

4-2-3-1
  1. Player 173908G
  2. Player 196359D
  3. Juuso HämäläinenD
  4. Player 436946D
  5. Player 48296D
  6. Player 214279M
  7. J. LaineM
  8. Player 464530F
  9. Player 387209F
  10. Player 379115F
  11. J. TuominenF

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-15T06:00:47.120Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

01d193354c4d352f18c5c557a674c2b11be468055d2475f70f43cc414a072929
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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