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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1495705

Veikkausliiga·Regular Season - 11
Ilves crest
IlvesHOME
5:0
Match Finished
HT 4-0
FF Jaro crest
FF JaroAWAY
Wed, Jun 17 · 15:00 UTCTammelan Stadion, Tampere19°CRefereeJoona Kontinen, Finland◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Ilves (56%)✓ Hit

Home

Ilves

100%

Draw

Draw

0%

Away

FF Jaro

0%

Model call: Ilves

Expected goals: 5.1—0.0(total 5.1)
Upset risk: 4/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 5–0Home win56%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 17

Ilves

5

FT

FF Jaro

0

Model called (T−24h)

Ilves (56%)

Actually happened

Ilves (56%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine favored Ilves (56%), and the live read grew to 100% by the 75-minute checkpoint as the match bore it out. Final: 5-0, a Ilves win.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was Ilves, so this match is a hit in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Ilves

3-4-3
  1. Faris KrkalićG
  2. Matias RaleD
  3. T. MiettunenD
  4. Ville KumpuD
  5. Kalle WalliusM
  6. Player 422409D
  7. Otto TiitinenM
  8. Player 627353D
  9. Jardell KangaM
  10. Teemu HytönenF
  11. Jesse KiloM

FF Jaro

3-4-2-1
  1. Player 79150G
  2. Player 552941D
  3. Player 55647D
  4. J. SkauD
  5. Player 544736D
  6. Player 55615M
  7. Player 345325M
  8. Player 196365D
  9. Player 358158M
  10. H. SjögrellF
  11. Player 361422M

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-15T20:47:32.800Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

87a702e03ec27dcafc6818549061cb40be0d7d9d3ff9cb331eb4e439b7f621e7
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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