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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1495706

Veikkausliiga·Regular Season - 11
Turku PS crest
Turku PSHOME
1:2
Match Finished
HT 0-1
KuPS crest
KuPSAWAY
Wed, Jun 17 · 15:00 UTCVeritas Stadion, Turku26°CRefereeMohammad Al-Emara, Finland◆ SPX ✗ Miss

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Data confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Draw (47%)✗ Miss

In-play peak · live read

KuPS 97%75'

Home

Turku PS

0%

Draw

Draw

3%

Away

KuPS

97%

Model call: KuPS

Expected goals: 1.0—2.0(total 3.0)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 1–2Away win30%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✗ MissFinal score · graded Jun 17

Turku PS

1

FT

KuPS

2

Model called (T−24h)

Draw (47%)

Actually happened

KuPS (23%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine leaned a draw (47%) in a close call. It finished 1-2, a KuPS win — a miss on a fixture the model itself read as far from settled.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was a draw (a lean, not a strong call), so this match is a miss in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Turku PS

4-2-3-1
  1. Elmo HenrikssonG
  2. Player 365254D
  3. Player 586554D
  4. Player 55721D
  5. Player 553188D
  6. T. ZaalM
  7. Player 181658D
  8. Player 392478M
  9. Player 560627M
  10. Player 163547D
  11. Player 560591M

KuPS

4-2-3-1
  1. J. KreidlG
  2. C. AntwiD
  3. A. LotjonenD
  4. S. SavolainenD
  5. T. HämäläinenD
  6. P. PennanenM
  7. N. KujasaloM
  8. B. ArmahD
  9. O. RuoppiM
  10. Player 55474M
  11. Player 52727F

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-15T06:00:55.682Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

404d917de3d35185c2ed68698aff0094040e58448eaa05785180d2488dcdd9e3
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

Verify yourself via the API.

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