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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1495707

Veikkausliiga·Regular Season - 11
Gnistan crest
GnistanHOME
1:0
Match Finished
HT 0-0
Lahti crest
LahtiAWAY
Wed, Jun 17 · 18:00 UTCMarkku.fi Areena, Helsinki17°CRefereeAntti Munukka, Finland◆ SPX ✗ Miss

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Data confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Draw (43%)✗ Miss

In-play peak · live read

Gnistan 98%75'

Home

Gnistan

98%

Draw

Draw

2%

Away

Lahti

0%

Model call: Gnistan

Expected goals: 1.1—0.0(total 1.1)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 1–0Home win35%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✗ MissFinal score · graded Jun 17

Gnistan

1

FT

Lahti

0

Model called (T−24h)

Draw (43%)

Actually happened

Gnistan (35%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine leaned a draw (43%) in a close call. It finished 1-0, a Gnistan win — a miss on a fixture the model itself read as far from settled.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was a draw (a lean, not a strong call), so this match is a miss in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Gnistan

3-4-3
  1. Á. CraninxG
  2. Player 635066F
  3. Ayo ObileyeD
  4. Player 546330D
  5. Otto HannulaM
  6. Player 410218M
  7. Player 558968M
  8. S. YlätupaF
  9. Player 55733F
  10. Adeleke Akinola AkinyemiF
  11. R. EremenkoM

Lahti

3-4-3
  1. Player 370345G
  2. Player 21002D
  3. Player 628426D
  4. Player 558953D
  5. Player 316913M
  6. Player 190689M
  7. E. AnderssonM
  8. Cristóbal MontielM
  9. Player 468212F
  10. Player 366184F
  11. Player 55565F

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-15T06:01:05.049Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

c89b7a77e6fd015e82324d591aef406fe729c3e4d3117169d64825182097226f
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

Verify yourself via the API.

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