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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1497592

Superettan·
IFK Varnamo crest
IFK VarnamoHOME
0:2
Match Finished
HT 0-0
United Nordic crest
United NordicAWAY
Sun, May 31 · 13:00 UTCFinnvedsvallen21°CRefereeRichard Sundell, Sweden◆ SPX ✗ Miss

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 2 out of 5 confidence

Home

IFK Varnamo

44%

Draw

Draw

29%

Away

United Nordic

27%

Lean: IFK Varnamo

Expected goals: 1.2—0.9(total 2.0)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%—48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✗ MissFinal score · graded Jun 1

IFK Varnamo

0

FT

United Nordic

2

Model called (T−24h)

IFK Varnamo (44%)

Actually happened

United Nordic (27%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

IFK Varnamo

3-5-2
  1. H. KetoG
  2. D. BergqvistD
  3. H. AnderssonD
  4. J. RappD
  5. A. BjörnströmD
  6. A. KujundžićM
  7. Player 128499M
  8. I. AbdulrazakM
  9. C. JohanssonM
  10. K. MeriluotoF
  11. M. AntonssonF

United Nordic

4-4-2
  1. W. EskelinenG
  2. Player 310496D
  3. Player 553863M
  4. Player 571388D
  5. Player 571319
  6. Player 323376D
  7. E. AnderssonD
  8. T. GronborgM
  9. L. MehmetiF
  10. Player 553456M
  11. K. JawlaF

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Lineup Absence Impact

Lineup confirmed shortly before kickoff

SPX Quant Engine

Beyond Match Outcome

Forward-looking analytics on corners and cards — beyond the 1X2 result market.

Corners

Expected total
10.7expected corners
Home 5.8Away 4.9
Over 9.5 corners62%
Over 10.5 corners50%

SPX commitment — no bookmaker odds shown

Cards

Expected total
3.3expected cards
Average ref
Home 1.6Away 1.8
Over 4.5 cards25%
Over 5.5 cards12%

SPX commitment — no bookmaker odds shown

SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Shot Creation Profile

Not enough recent-match history to build a shot-creation profile for these teams yet.

SPX Quant Engine

Shot Quality

Shot quality data unavailable for this fixture

SPX Quant Engine

Pass Network

Pass network data unavailable for this fixture

SPX Quant Engine

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-09T02:36:46.517Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

d43156b2f2e67e7c2a291a61020528dce4ff38abf0a87965c071af58b6aec4bc
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.01 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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