SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1505449
◆ SPX Quant Forecast
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceGraded call · locked before kickoff
Home
Universidad de Chile
96%
Draw
Draw
4%
Away
O'Higgins
0%
Model call: Universidad de Chile
Probability Evolution
How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle
Universidad de Chile
2
O'Higgins
0
Model called (T−24h)
Universidad de Chile (44%)
Actually happened
Universidad de Chile (44%)
Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.
The Engine read
48 hours out the Engine favored Universidad de Chile (44%), and the live read grew to 96% by the 75-minute checkpoint as the match bore it out. Final: 2-0, a Universidad de Chile win.
What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was Universidad de Chile (a lean, not a strong call), so this match is a hit in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.
Match Analysis
Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.
SPX xG
ⓘLineup Analysis
Starting XI not yet confirmed — lineups land roughly an hour before kickoff and this report updates automatically.
Post-Match Deep Analytics
Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.
Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →
Integrity Lock
This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-16T15:30:13.011Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.
Stage hash ledger
| t48h | 2026-06-16T15:30:13.011Z | 892a8bb111bcbb64c9cea8e4bf3a08eecf4605494ab869ace4eb447c3d118343 |
| t24h | 2026-06-16T15:30:13.011Z | f4e82954d59bb5bbab2d53aca76b24ac11064b419a617491ec3a89b89d00cd78 |
| preMatch | 2026-06-18T21:01:03.237Z | 56e5dbdf3bce45288f1333694729eb65d8b42428596c9dcdf34657c5715702cc |
| inPlayMin30 | 2026-06-19T00:30:52.414Z | 1983add36113010365997db4722c9b33315c41874c4bed160f621903790b1570 |
| halfTime | 2026-06-19T00:55:02.243Z | 907de1dfec977e2d58df9613021d108aa6974e0a0c1989d8d67815b0a3f5ef10 |
| inPlayMin60 | 2026-06-19T01:20:53.429Z | fe07671ec69d7309ded05d0764bb08a8da2e5545afdf353e68d5a8f6c37694f4 |
| inPlayMin75 | 2026-06-19T01:45:02.911Z | 21a3268561ff1ad9c1b8ab4b160a51bfb99728cef2e2fe3b3dde2c8fd86d752d |
Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.