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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1519376

Liga Pro·
Deportivo Cuenca crest
Deportivo CuencaHOME
1:0
Match Finished
HT 0-0
Delfin SC crest
Delfin SCAWAY
Sun, May 31 · 00:00 UTCEstadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar14°CRefereeRussell Macario Teran Leon, Ecuador◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Home

Deportivo Cuenca

66%

Draw

Draw

19%

Away

Delfin SC

14%

Model call: Deportivo Cuenca

Expected goals: 1.5—0.6(total 2.1)
Upset risk: 3/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%—48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 1

Deportivo Cuenca

1

FT

Delfin SC

0

Model called (T−24h)

Deportivo Cuenca (65%)

Actually happened

Deportivo Cuenca (65%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Deportivo Cuenca

4-2-3-1
  1. Player 59206G
  2. Player 354052D
  3. Player 116115D
  4. P. BoolsenD
  5. Player 16385D
  6. B. GarcíaM
  7. Player 289463M
  8. Player 16595M
  9. D. GonzálezM
  10. É. VegaM
  11. Player 282406F

Delfin SC

5-3-2
  1. Player 16611G
  2. Player 409166D
  3. M. BurdissoD
  4. A. BedoyaD
  5. Player 560333D
  6. Player 16780D
  7. Player 16262M
  8. Player 323160M
  9. G. HerediaM
  10. J. CavallaroF
  11. Player 642735

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Lineup Absence Impact

Key absentees and how unbalanced the missing-star count is between sides.

Deportivo Cuenca
0stars missing
Delfin SC
0stars missing

Deportivo Cuenca · key absences

  • R. Ibarra

    Attacker · 926 days out

Delfin SC · key absences

  • G. Heredia

    Midfielder · 382 days out

    6.48
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Beyond Match Outcome

Forward-looking analytics on corners and cards — beyond the 1X2 result market.

Corners

Expected total
8.8expected corners
Home 5.2Away 3.6
Over 9.5 corners38%
Over 10.5 corners27%

SPX commitment — no bookmaker odds shown

Cards

Expected total
5.4expected cards
Average ref
Home 2.5Away 2.9
Over 4.5 cards62%
Over 5.5 cards45%

SPX commitment — no bookmaker odds shown

SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Shot Creation Profile

Not enough recent-match history to build a shot-creation profile for these teams yet.

SPX Quant Engine

Shot Quality

Each bubble = one player. Size scales with the SPX shot-quality estimate.

Deportivo CuencaDelfin SC
0123450'15'30'45'60'75'90'Minutes playedShotsPlayer #16595 (M) — 3 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.12Player #289463 (M) — 2 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.08Player #478984 (M) — 2 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.08A. Bedoya (D) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04M. Burdisso (D) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.18Player #366893 (F) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04Player #106358 (M) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.041Player #16385 (D) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 1 goal, est. SPX xG 0.18Player #116115 (D) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04Player #354052 (D) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.18B. García (M) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04D. González (M) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.18Player #282406 (F) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04Player #26992 (F) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Pass Network

Pass volume vs completion rate. Bubble size scales with minutes played.

Deportivo CuencaDelfin SC
0%25%50%75%100%020406080Passes attemptedAccuracyPlayer #16611 (G) — 25 passes, 13 completed (52%), 0 keyPlayer #16780 (D) — 8 passes, 4 completed (50%), 0 keyPlayer #560333 (D) — 15 passes, 7 completed (47%), 0 keyA. Bedoya (D) — 18 passes, 14 completed (78%), 0 keyM. Burdisso (D) — 9 passes, 6 completed (67%), 0 keyPlayer #409166 (D) — 5 passes, 5 completed (100%), 0 keyG. Heredia (M) — 17 passes, 10 completed (59%), 1 keyPlayer #323160 (M) — 11 passes, 10 completed (91%), 1 keyPlayer #16262 (M) — 4 passes, 1 completed (25%), 1 keyPlayer #366893 (F) — 10 passes, 5 completed (50%), 2 keyJ. Cavallaro (F) — 5 passes, 5 completed (100%), 0 keyPlayer #197049 (D) — 2 passes, 1 completed (50%), 0 keyPlayer #461036 (M) — 7 passes, 4 completed (57%), 0 keyPlayer #106358 (M) — 5 passes, 4 completed (80%), 0 keyPlayer #199724 (M) — 2 passes, 2 completed (100%), 1 keyPlayer #59206 (G) — 27 passes, 22 completed (81%), 0 keyPlayer #16385 (D) — 60 passes, 51 completed (85%), 1 keyP. Boolsen (D) — 71 passes, 67 completed (94%), 0 keyPlayer #116115 (D) — 52 passes, 48 completed (92%), 0 keyPlayer #354052 (D) — 69 passes, 60 completed (87%), 3 keyPlayer #289463 (M) — 90 passes, 81 completed (90%), 0 keyB. García (M) — 44 passes, 39 completed (89%), 0 keyÉ. Vega (M) — 52 passes, 48 completed (92%), 0 keyD. González (M) — 41 passes, 37 completed (90%), 3 keyPlayer #16595 (M) — 17 passes, 15 completed (88%), 2 keyPlayer #282406 (F) — 35 passes, 33 completed (94%), 2 keyPlayer #478984 (M) — 14 passes, 11 completed (79%), 0 keyPlayer #460043 (M) — 5 passes, 4 completed (80%), 1 keyPlayer #26992 (F) — 2 passes, 2 completed (100%), 0 key
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-09T02:36:46.517Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

b9616a32dd5b4303e570d307e350cd7f3f7db1c0a94f2ea054e75a077e60dec5
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.01 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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