SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1520731
◆ SPX Quant Forecast
Outcome Probabilities
Data confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceGraded call · locked before kickoff
Home
Avai
95%
Draw
Draw
5%
Away
Cuiaba
0%
Model call: Avai
Probability Evolution
How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle
Avai
1
Cuiaba
0
Model called (T−24h)
Avai (46%)
Actually happened
Avai (46%)
Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.
The Engine read
48 hours out the Engine favored Avai (46%), and the live read grew to 95% by the 75-minute checkpoint as the match bore it out. Final: 1-0, a Avai win.
What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was Avai (a lean, not a strong call), so this match is a hit in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.
Match Analysis
Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.
SPX xG
ⓘLineup Analysis
Starting XI not yet confirmed — lineups land roughly an hour before kickoff and this report updates automatically.
Post-Match Deep Analytics
Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.
Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →
Integrity Lock
This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-19T06:31:53.354Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.
Stage hash ledger
| t48h | 2026-06-19T06:31:53.354Z | bce32c98ef96375ff77057beec3047b5f78aad5ee4b9542c96af4b5d7f4c7976 |
| t24h | 2026-06-19T06:31:53.354Z | 19ebde834036f01021d4de516b6182ddabf2189ca2256f61ddb54a37e97b3592 |
| inPlayMin30 | 2026-06-21T14:35:02.352Z | 2445a8a08cc120e1c7ef1d24d6e30e0b141c33a6d2b62af382c6d948247c76eb |
| halfTime | 2026-06-21T14:55:02.106Z | a89fd6cf53a16f6869c2ee289893661b43e106dde373a4114c252ea5dd41b128 |
| inPlayMin60 | 2026-06-21T15:20:52.356Z | 966fc9f431bcc90630f6993017fb73479101566759db5c78e3dcd53e1f2b692a |
| inPlayMin75 | 2026-06-21T15:45:02.472Z | 01a2ce0097cacb78e3cbc6bb967adbc81ff1669cd281f3231490619f0ac766eb |
Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.