SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1520735
◆ SPX Quant Forecast
Outcome Probabilities
Data confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceGraded call · locked before kickoff
Home
Londrina
96%
Draw
Draw
4%
Away
Athletic Club
0%
Model call: Londrina
Probability Evolution
How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle
Londrina
2
Athletic Club
0
Model called (T−24h)
Londrina (46%)
Actually happened
Londrina (46%)
Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.
The Engine read
48 hours out the Engine favored Londrina (46%), and the live read grew to 96% by the 75-minute checkpoint as the match bore it out. Final: 2-0, a Londrina win.
What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was Londrina (a lean, not a strong call), so this match is a hit in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.
Match Analysis
Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.
SPX xG
ⓘLineup Analysis
Starting XI not yet confirmed — lineups land roughly an hour before kickoff and this report updates automatically.
Post-Match Deep Analytics
Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.
Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →
Integrity Lock
This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-20T03:30:58.580Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.
Stage hash ledger
| t48h | 2026-06-20T03:30:58.580Z | 70aec4dda62b87b0e7201d7f49cc37468ab41d4dc34d85d8c67dfda46736ccff |
| t24h | 2026-06-20T03:30:58.580Z | 0d50edf4a3aa00b4ede9abd408abea87e00095fdb73357a545cff5810825fb30 |
| preMatch | 2026-06-20T11:01:02.890Z | fc383c1736318624dbf0b90945b78eb2b5e76097c1597f937b4754a8f56b7ad6 |
| inPlayMin30 | 2026-06-20T14:30:51.315Z | 7c4988d3ae997b58ac0accbc3c1d1d7307d89a63c11dcad6a841d1468f87bd2c |
| halfTime | 2026-06-20T14:50:51.036Z | 179b8d23af5f41cab9c7a7493e6c632dd89c0490837008ed7d9ea1bf8bd38337 |
| inPlayMin60 | 2026-06-20T15:15:02.662Z | e3a77f7b85ab1b3a4e88d152e1fe7f4f9d1f3b63f6229dc8d87261d480cbb398 |
| inPlayMin75 | 2026-06-20T15:45:01.796Z | 21fa22ff9c7d7a1db3891019e0b34c0e2ad5489827540f97d2d9944c4cc9316d |
Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.