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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1527865

Friendlies·
Mexico crest
MexicoHOME
1:0
Match Finished
HT 1-0
Australia crest
AustraliaAWAY
Sun, May 31 · 02:00 UTCRose Bowl Stadium18°CRefereeRubiel Vazquez, USA◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Home

Mexico

66%

Draw

Draw

21%

Away

Australia

13%

Model call: Mexico

Expected goals: 1.5—0.6(total 2.1)
Upset risk: 3/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%—48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
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✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 1

Mexico

1

FT

Australia

0

Model called (T−24h)

Mexico (66%)

Actually happened

Mexico (66%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Mexico

4-2-3-1
  1. J. RangelG
  2. Mateo ChávezD
  3. Johan VásquezD
  4. E. ÁlvarezD
  5. J. SánchezD
  6. L. ChávezM
  7. L. RomoM
  8. A. VegaM
  9. Álvaro FidalgoM
  10. O. PinedaM
  11. G. MartínezF

Australia

5-4-1
  1. M. RyanG
  2. J. BosD
  3. L. HerringtonD
  4. Harry SouttarD
  5. Alessandro CircatiD
  6. J. ItalianoD
  7. Connor MetcalfeM
  8. A. O'NeillM
  9. Jackson IrvineM
  10. M. LeckieM
  11. M. TouréF

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Lineup Absence Impact

Key absentees and how unbalanced the missing-star count is between sides.

Mexico
0stars missing
Australia
0stars missing

Mexico · key absences

  • E. Álvarez

    Midfielder · 278 days out

    6.90

  • G. Ochoa

    Goalkeeper · 779 days out

    6.71

  • R. Alvarado

    Midfielder · 271 days out

    6.20

Australia · key absences

  • R. McGree

    Midfielder · 324 days out

    6.85

  • M. Boyle

    Attacker · 1322 days out

    6.75
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Beyond Match Outcome

Forward-looking analytics on corners and cards — beyond the 1X2 result market.

Corners

Expected total
8.0expected corners
Home 4.5Away 3.5
Over 9.5 corners28%
Over 10.5 corners19%

SPX commitment — no bookmaker odds shown

Cards

Expected total
3.7expected cards
Average ref
Home 1.5Away 2.2
Over 4.5 cards32%
Over 5.5 cards17%

SPX commitment — no bookmaker odds shown

SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Shot Creation Profile

Not enough recent-match history to build a shot-creation profile for these teams yet.

SPX Quant Engine

Shot Quality

Each bubble = one player. Size scales with the SPX shot-quality estimate.

MexicoAustralia
0123450'15'30'45'60'75'90'Minutes playedShots1Johan Vásquez (D) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 1 goal, est. SPX xG 0.18L. Chávez (M) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04Álvaro Fidalgo (M) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.18A. Vega (M) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.18S. Giménez (F) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04Jackson Irvine (M) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04A. O'Neill (M) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.18M. Touré (F) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04N. Irankunda (F) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Pass Network

Pass volume vs completion rate. Bubble size scales with minutes played.

MexicoAustralia
0%25%50%75%100%020406080100Passes attemptedAccuracyJ. Rangel (G) — 17 passes, 16 completed (94%), 0 keyJ. Sánchez (D) — 49 passes, 45 completed (92%), 0 keyE. Álvarez (D) — 78 passes, 76 completed (97%), 0 keyJohan Vásquez (D) — 92 passes, 87 completed (95%), 0 keyMateo Chávez (D) — 37 passes, 35 completed (95%), 0 keyL. Romo (M) — 54 passes, 49 completed (91%), 1 keyL. Chávez (M) — 43 passes, 40 completed (93%), 1 keyO. Pineda (M) — 16 passes, 14 completed (88%), 0 keyÁlvaro Fidalgo (M) — 24 passes, 23 completed (96%), 1 keyA. Vega (M) — 37 passes, 34 completed (92%), 3 keyG. Martínez (F) — 6 passes, 4 completed (67%), 0 keyG. Ochoa (G) — 18 passes, 10 completed (56%), 0 keyI. Reyes (D) — 21 passes, 20 completed (95%), 0 keyC. S. Huerta Valera (M) — 8 passes, 5 completed (63%), 0 keyS. Giménez (F) — 4 passes, 2 completed (50%), 0 keyÉ. Lira (M) — 20 passes, 18 completed (90%), 0 keyC. Montes (D) — 20 passes, 16 completed (80%), 0 keyJ. Gallardo (D) — 18 passes, 11 completed (61%), 1 keyG. Mora (M) — 11 passes, 10 completed (91%), 0 keyJ. Quiñones (F) — 10 passes, 9 completed (90%), 0 keyA. Gómez (D) — 9 passes, 8 completed (89%), 0 keyO. Vargas (M) — 5 passes, 4 completed (80%), 0 keyM. Ryan (G) — 20 passes, 14 completed (70%), 0 keyJ. Italiano (D) — 13 passes, 9 completed (69%), 0 keyAlessandro Circati (D) — 59 passes, 46 completed (78%), 0 keyHarry Souttar (D) — 62 passes, 52 completed (84%), 1 keyL. Herrington (D) — 56 passes, 53 completed (95%), 1 keyJ. Bos (D) — 23 passes, 19 completed (83%), 0 keyM. Leckie (M) — 10 passes, 5 completed (50%), 0 keyJackson Irvine (M) — 33 passes, 29 completed (88%), 0 keyA. O'Neill (M) — 27 passes, 24 completed (89%), 0 keyConnor Metcalfe (M) — 16 passes, 9 completed (56%), 0 keyM. Touré (F) — 8 passes, 5 completed (63%), 0 keyK. Trewin (D) — 16 passes, 13 completed (81%), 1 keyA. Hrustić (M) — 14 passes, 14 completed (100%), 1 keyPaul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler (M) — 23 passes, 19 completed (83%), 0 keyN. Velupillay (F) — 10 passes, 7 completed (70%), 0 keyA. Behich (D) — 4 passes, 3 completed (75%), 0 keyN. Irankunda (F) — 4 passes, 4 completed (100%), 0 keyCameron Burgess (D) — 10 passes, 10 completed (100%), 0 keyA. Mabil (M) — 2 passes, 1 completed (50%), 0 key
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-09T02:36:46.517Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

72fc6314a1557729c979fb009b299b51f59415152e0750ee3097ba1b2ce2d0a6
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.01 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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