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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1539001

World Cup·Group Stage - 1
Australia crest
AustraliaHOME
2:0
Match Finished
HT 1-0
Türkiye crest
TürkiyeAWAY
Sun, Jun 14 · 04:00 UTCBC Place, Vancouver23°CRefereeJesús Valenzuela, Venezuela◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Australia (49%)✓ Hit

Home

Australia

100%

Draw

Draw

0%

Away

Türkiye

0%

Model call: Australia

Expected goals: 2.0—0.0(total 2.0)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 2–0Home win49%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 14

Australia

2

FT

Türkiye

0

Model called (T−24h)

Australia (100%)

Actually happened

Australia (100%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Australia

3-4-2-1
  1. P. BeachG
  2. Cameron BurgessD
  3. Harry SouttarD
  4. Alessandro CircatiD
  5. J. BosM
  6. Paul Michael Junior Okon-EngstlerM
  7. A. O'NeillM
  8. J. ItalianoM
  9. Connor MetcalfeF
  10. N. IrankundaF
  11. M. TouréF

Türkiye

4-2-3-1
  1. U. ÇakırG
  2. F. KadıoğluD
  3. A. BardakcıD
  4. M. DemiralD
  5. Z. ÇelikD
  6. İ. YüksekM
  7. H. ÇalhanoğluM
  8. B. YılmazM
  9. O. KokcuM
  10. A. GülerM
  11. K. AktürkoğluF

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-11T22:58:35.459Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

102d7e48035426dbc62333b3a867bdaa718553222680ed4a5e781f69a98300e4
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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