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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1539002

World Cup·Group Stage - 1
Sweden crest
SwedenHOME
5:1
Match Finished
HT 2-1
Tunisia crest
TunisiaAWAY
Mon, Jun 15 · 02:00 UTCEstadio BBVA, Monterrey29°CRefereeYael Falcon Perez, Argentina◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Sweden (55%)✓ Hit

Home

Sweden

100%

Draw

Draw

0%

Away

Tunisia

0%

Model call: Sweden

Expected goals: 3.2—1.1(total 4.3)
Upset risk: 6/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 5–1Home win55%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 15

Sweden

5

FT

Tunisia

1

Model called (T−24h)

Sweden (100%)

Actually happened

Sweden (100%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Sweden

3-4-1-2
  1. Kristoffer NordfeldtG
  2. V. LindelöfD
  3. I. HienD
  4. G. LagerbielkeD
  5. Gabriel GudmundssonM
  6. Y. AyariM
  7. J. KarlströmM
  8. A. BernhardssonM
  9. B. NygrenF
  10. Alexander IsakF
  11. V. GyökeresF

Tunisia

4-2-3-1
  1. Player 533394G
  2. Player 135059D
  3. Omar RekikD
  4. Montassar TalbiD
  5. Y. ValeryD
  6. E. SkhiriM
  7. R. KhediraM
  8. Ali AbdiM
  9. Hannibal MejbriM
  10. A. Ben SlimaneM
  11. Elias SaadF

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-12T17:11:43.674Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

ffb90fb0bde43d014b593adfbfd5ad4d1d517c5a5f0a15af56c8edb1ac3da46d
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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