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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1539003

World Cup·Group Stage - 1
Portugal crest
PortugalHOME
1:1
Match Finished
HT 1-1
Congo DR crest
Congo DRAWAY
Wed, Jun 17 · 17:00 UTCNRG Stadium, Houston26°CRefereeAbdulrahman Al-Jassim, Qatar◆ SPX ✗ Miss

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Portugal (50%)✗ Miss

In-play peak · live read

Draw 89%75'

Home

Portugal

6%

Draw

Draw

89%

Away

Congo DR

5%

Model call: Draw

Expected goals: 1.1—1.0(total 2.1)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 1–1Draw50%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✗ MissFinal score · graded Jun 17

Portugal

1

FT

Congo DR

1

Model called (T−24h)

Portugal (50%)

Actually happened

Draw (25%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine leaned Portugal (50%) in a close call. It finished 1-1, a draw — a miss on a fixture the model itself read as far from settled.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was Portugal (a lean, not a strong call), so this match is a miss in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Portugal

4-2-3-1
  1. Diogo CostaG
  2. Nuno MendesD
  3. Renato VeigaD
  4. Tomás AraújoD
  5. João CanceloD
  6. VitinhaM
  7. João NevesM
  8. Pedro NetoM
  9. Bruno FernandesM
  10. Bernardo SilvaM
  11. Cristiano RonaldoF

Congo DR

5-3-2
  1. Lionel M'PasiG
  2. A. MasuakuD
  3. S. KapuadiD
  4. A. TuanzebeD
  5. Chancel MbembaD
  6. A. Wan-BissakaD
  7. E. KayembeM
  8. N. MukauM
  9. S. MoutoussamyM
  10. Y. WissaF
  11. C. BakambuF

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-15T06:01:00.639Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

83aa36d122287e449bc022bd6991006dbf57b80b8b06e635e1828a05da951383
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

Verify yourself via the API.

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