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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1539004

World Cup·Group Stage - 2
Czechia crest
CzechiaHOME
1:1
Match Finished
HT 1-0
South Africa crest
South AfricaAWAY
Thu, Jun 18 · 16:00 UTCMercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta27°CRefereeTori Penso, USA◆ SPX ✗ Miss

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Czechia (55%)✗ Miss

In-play peak · live read

Draw 84%75'

Home

Czechia

12%

Draw

Draw

84%

Away

South Africa

4%

Model call: Draw

Expected goals: 1.1—1.1(total 2.2)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 1–1Draw55%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✗ MissFinal score · graded Jun 18

Czechia

1

FT

South Africa

1

Model called (T−24h)

Czechia (55%)

Actually happened

Draw (26%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine leaned Czechia (55%) in a close call. It finished 1-1, a draw — a miss on a fixture the model itself read as far from settled.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was Czechia, so this match is a miss in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Czechia

3-4-2-1
  1. M. KovářG
  2. L. KrejčíD
  3. R. HranáčD
  4. T. HolešD
  5. Alexandr SojkaM
  6. L. ČervM
  7. M. SadílekM
  8. V. CoufalM
  9. V. DaridaM
  10. A. HložekF
  11. P. SchickF

South Africa

4-2-3-1
  1. Player 3275G
  2. Player 46334D
  3. Player 510799D
  4. Player 406752D
  5. Player 46601D
  6. Player 3287M
  7. Player 194430M
  8. Player 354831F
  9. Player 268710M
  10. Player 179893F
  11. Player 127429F

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-16T05:00:17.004Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

8defb6bce51fe42befaa2b86a54c95d9bcf5655c2f4ad7629769e043a5372aad
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

Verify yourself via the API.

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