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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1539005

World Cup·Group Stage - 2
Switzerland crest
SwitzerlandHOME
4:1
Match Finished
HT 0-0
Bosnia & Herzegovina crest
Bosnia & HerzegovinaAWAY
Thu, Jun 18 · 19:00 UTCSoFi Stadium, Los Angeles20°CRefereeJoao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Switzerland (50%)✓ Hit

Home

Switzerland

100%

Draw

Draw

0%

Away

Bosnia & Herzegovina

0%

Model call: Switzerland

Expected goals: 2.1—0.1(total 2.2)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 4–1Home win50%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 18

Switzerland

4

FT

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1

Model called (T−24h)

Switzerland (50%)

Actually happened

Switzerland (50%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine favored Switzerland (50%), and the live read grew to 100% by the 75-minute checkpoint as the match bore it out. Final: 4-1, a Switzerland win.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was Switzerland (a lean, not a strong call), so this match is a hit in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Switzerland

4-3-3
  1. G. KobelG
  2. R. RodríguezD
  3. M. AkanjiD
  4. N. ElvediD
  5. S. WidmerD
  6. R. FreulerM
  7. G. XhakaM
  8. M. AebischerM
  9. D. NdoyeF
  10. B. EmboloF
  11. F. RiederF

Bosnia & Herzegovina

4-4-2
  1. N. VasiljG
  2. S. KolašinacD
  3. N. KatićD
  4. Tarik MuharemovićD
  5. A. DedićD
  6. Kerim AlajbegovićM
  7. I. ŠunjićM
  8. Benjamin TahirovićM
  9. Amar MemićM
  10. E. DzekoF
  11. E. DemirovićF

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-16T07:00:23.073Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

be107d28e80d26827c756649d6e6848f9802bf631e357195152019ee02bab94a
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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