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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1539006

World Cup·Group Stage - 2
Türkiye crest
TürkiyeHOME
0:1
Match Finished
HT 0-1
Paraguay crest
ParaguayAWAY
Sat, Jun 20 · 03:00 UTCLevi's Stadium, San Francisco Bay Area21°CRefereeIván Barton, El Salvador◆ SPX ✗ Miss

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Data confidence 5 out of 5 confidence
High Confidencewas our pre-kickoff conviction
✗ Miss

This band (top prob 70%–80%) has hit 73.3% before kickoff — 41,819 of 57,033 graded calls. Calibrated, audited, zero odds input.

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Türkiye (72%)✗ Miss

In-play peak · live read

Paraguay 97%75'

Home

Türkiye

0%

Draw

Draw

3%

Away

Paraguay

97%

Model call: Paraguay

Expected goals: 0.1—1.0(total 1.1)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 0–1Away win72%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✗ MissFinal score · graded Jun 20

Türkiye

0

FT

Paraguay

1

Model called (T−24h)

Türkiye (72%)

Actually happened

Paraguay (10%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine leaned Türkiye (72%) in a close call. It finished 0-1, a Paraguay win — a miss on a fixture the model itself read as far from settled.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was Türkiye, so this match is a miss in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Türkiye

4-2-3-1
  1. U. ÇakırG
  2. F. KadıoğluD
  3. A. BardakcıD
  4. M. DemiralD
  5. M. MüldürD
  6. H. ÇalhanoğluM
  7. İ. YüksekM
  8. K. YıldızM
  9. A. GülerM
  10. Y. AkgünM
  11. K. AktürkoğluF

Paraguay

4-4-2
  1. O. GillG
  2. J. AlonsoD
  3. Omar AldereteD
  4. G. GómezD
  5. J. CáceresD
  6. M. AlmirónM
  7. M. GalarzaM
  8. A. CubasM
  9. D. GómezM
  10. J. EncisoF
  11. I. PittaF

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-17T15:30:21.481Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

32da9c3b4c4404a826b67d244d38c5dc6b1c5d7f35c8c8eec2378a970aff2cb2
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

Verify yourself via the API.

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