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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1539016

World Cup·Group Stage - 1
Iraq crest
IraqHOME
1:4
Match Finished
HT 1-2
Norway crest
NorwayAWAY
Tue, Jun 16 · 22:00 UTCGillette Stadium, Boston24°CRefereePierre Ghislain Atcho, Gabon◆ SPX ✗ Miss

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Graded call · locked before kickoff

Iraq (41%)✗ Miss

In-play peak · live read

Norway 100%75'

Home

Iraq

0%

Draw

Draw

0%

Away

Norway

100%

Model call: Norway

Expected goals: 1.0—3.0(total 4.1)
Upset risk: 6/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%FT · 1–4Away win41%48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✗ MissFinal score · graded Jun 17

Iraq

1

FT

Norway

4

Model called (T−24h)

Iraq (41%)

Actually happened

Norway (32%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

The Engine read

48 hours out the Engine leaned Iraq (41%) in a close call. It finished 1-4, a Norway win — a miss on a fixture the model itself read as far from settled.

What we grade: only the forecast locked before kickoff — the number we cryptographically commit to. That was Iraq (a lean, not a strong call), so this match is a miss in our published record. The in-play line is shown for transparency, never graded after the fact.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Iraq

4-4-2
  1. Player 53886G
  2. Merchas DoskiD
  3. Player 453073D
  4. Player 296373D
  5. H. AliD
  6. A. JasimM
  7. Player 626479M
  8. Amir Al AmmariM
  9. Ibrahim BayeshM
  10. Ali Al-HamadiF
  11. Player 49451F

Norway

4-3-3
  1. Ø. NylandG
  2. D. Møller WolfeD
  3. T. HeggemD
  4. K. AjerD
  5. Julian RyersonD
  6. F. AursnesM
  7. S. BergeM
  8. Martin ØdegaardM
  9. A. NusaF
  10. E. HålandF
  11. A. SørlothF

Lineup-strength edge unavailable for this fixture.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-14T23:00:22.608Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

fc2bbfee058f5f2dd9d4cdeef948327dd564204c8c7b7c16f0cbd5cd2a248f23
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.2 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

Verify yourself via the API.

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