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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1540351

Friendlies·
Japan crest
JapanHOME
1:0
Match Finished
HT 0-0
Iceland crest
IcelandAWAY
Sun, May 31 · 10:25 UTCNew National StadiumRefereeDamian Kos, Poland◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 5 out of 5 confidence

Home

Japan

91%

Draw

Draw

7%

Away

Iceland

3%

Model call: Japan

Expected goals: 1.9—0.3(total 2.1)
Upset risk: 1/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%—48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 1

Japan

1

FT

Iceland

0

Model called (T−24h)

Japan (91%)

Actually happened

Japan (91%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Japan

3-4-2-1
  1. Z. SuzukiG
  2. Ko ItakuraD
  3. M. YoshidaD
  4. Takehiro TomiyasuD
  5. K. NakamuraM
  6. Ao TanakaM
  7. W. EndoM
  8. R. DoanM
  9. J. ItoF
  10. Takefusa KuboF
  11. A. UedaF

Iceland

  1. H. ValdimarssonG
  2. D. Þór­halls­sonD
  3. D. GrétarssonD
  4. H. MagnússonD
  5. L. TomassonD
  6. S. ÞórðarsonM
  7. Mikael EllertssonM
  8. G. ÞórðarsonM
  9. A. BaldurssonM
  10. K. HlynssonM
  11. B. WillumssonF

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Lineup Absence Impact

Key absentees and how unbalanced the missing-star count is between sides.

Japan
0stars missing
Iceland
0stars missing

Japan · key absences

No notable absences reported

Iceland · key absences

  • Mikael Ellertsson

    Midfielder · 415 days out

    6.00

  • O. Óskarsson

    Attacker · 286 days out

    6.75

  • B. Willumsson

    Attacker · 274 days out

    6.50
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Beyond Match Outcome

Forward-looking analytics on corners and cards — beyond the 1X2 result market.

Corners

Expected total
10.5expected corners
Home 7.9Away 2.6
Over 9.5 corners60%
Over 10.5 corners47%

SPX commitment — no bookmaker odds shown

Cards

Expected total
2.8expected cards
Average ref
Home 1.3Away 1.6
Over 4.5 cards16%
Over 5.5 cards6.9%

SPX commitment — no bookmaker odds shown

SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Shot Creation Profile

Not enough recent-match history to build a shot-creation profile for these teams yet.

SPX Quant Engine

Shot Quality

Each bubble = one player. Size scales with the SPX shot-quality estimate.

JapanIceland
0123450'15'30'45'60'75'90'Minutes playedShotsTakehiro Tomiyasu (D) — 2 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.22K. Nakamura (M) — 2 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.221Koki Ogawa (F) — 2 shots, 1 on target, 1 goal, est. SPX xG 0.22D. Þór­halls­son (D) — 2 shots, 2 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.36L. Tomasson (D) — 2 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.08Ko Itakura (D) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.18Ao Tanaka (M) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.18Takefusa Kubo (F) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.18Y. Nagatomo (D) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.18B. Willumsson (F) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04W. Willumsson (M) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04H. Hermannsson (D) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Pass Network

Pass volume vs completion rate. Bubble size scales with minutes played.

JapanIceland
0%25%50%75%100%020406080Passes attemptedAccuracyZ. Suzuki (G) — 19 passes, 12 completed (63%), 0 keyTakehiro Tomiyasu (D) — 76 passes, 69 completed (91%), 1 keyM. Yoshida (D) — 25 passes, 22 completed (88%), 0 keyKo Itakura (D) — 76 passes, 73 completed (96%), 0 keyR. Doan (M) — 14 passes, 9 completed (64%), 0 keyW. Endo (M) — 44 passes, 37 completed (84%), 0 keyAo Tanaka (M) — 55 passes, 51 completed (93%), 0 keyK. Nakamura (M) — 51 passes, 46 completed (90%), 1 keyTakefusa Kubo (F) — 34 passes, 30 completed (88%), 4 keyJ. Ito (F) — 20 passes, 18 completed (90%), 0 keyA. Ueda (F) — 11 passes, 9 completed (82%), 1 keyHiroki Ito (D) — 63 passes, 58 completed (92%), 0 keyA. Seko (D) — 24 passes, 21 completed (88%), 2 keyY. Nagatomo (D) — 10 passes, 9 completed (90%), 0 keyY. Sugawara (D) — 19 passes, 16 completed (84%), 4 keyKoki Ogawa (F) — 5 passes, 3 completed (60%), 0 keyK. Shiogai (F) — 2 passes, 2 completed (100%), 0 keyT. Watanabe (D) — 11 passes, 10 completed (91%), 0 keyK. Goto (F) — 6 passes, 3 completed (50%), 0 keyT. Hayakawa (G) — 4 passes, 2 completed (50%), 0 keyS. Taniguchi (D) — 9 passes, 7 completed (78%), 0 keyK. Sano (M) — 3 passes, 3 completed (100%), 0 keyH. Valdimarsson (G) — 55 passes, 35 completed (64%), 0 keyD. Þór­halls­son (D) — 40 passes, 33 completed (83%), 0 keyD. Grétarsson (D) — 55 passes, 50 completed (91%), 0 keyH. Magnússon (D) — 70 passes, 68 completed (97%), 0 keyL. Tomasson (D) — 46 passes, 34 completed (74%), 1 keyS. Þórðarson (M) — 62 passes, 53 completed (85%), 0 keyMikael Ellertsson (M) — 18 passes, 13 completed (72%), 0 keyG. Þórðarson (M) — 13 passes, 9 completed (69%), 0 keyA. Baldursson (M) — 36 passes, 33 completed (92%), 0 keyK. Hlynsson (M) — 26 passes, 22 completed (85%), 1 keyB. Willumsson (F) — 14 passes, 9 completed (64%), 0 keyW. Willumsson (M) — 12 passes, 9 completed (75%), 1 keyA. Gunnarsson (M) — 15 passes, 13 completed (87%), 0 keyB. Andrésson (F) — 5 passes, 3 completed (60%), 0 keyH. Hermannsson (D) — 11 passes, 10 completed (91%), 0 keyÍ. Þorvaldsson (M) — 2 passes, 1 completed (50%), 0 keyS. Sigurðarson (F) — 1 passes, 1 completed (100%), 0 key
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-09T02:36:46.517Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

c0d45f0120f3ac358f2d1149ae6cb3fa1db157f58054eaa91e740c3bea8df3a8
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.01 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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