SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1540358
◆ SPX Quant Forecast
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceGraded call · locked before kickoff
Home
Portugal
39%
Draw
Draw
36%
Away
Nigeria
25%
Lean: Portugal · close call (3pp margin)
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Probability Evolution
How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle
Portugal
2
Nigeria
1
Model called (T−24h)
Portugal (65%)
Actually happened
Portugal (65%)
Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.
Match Analysis
Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.
SPX xG
ⓘLineup Analysis
Starting XI not yet confirmed — lineups land roughly an hour before kickoff and this report updates automatically.
Post-Match Deep Analytics
Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.
Shot-quality scatter · pass-success grid · key absences · expected shots · beyond-outcome calls — the full tactical deep-dive is a Premium feature →
Integrity Lock
This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-10T04:30:08.528Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.
Model v4.01 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.