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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1540948

Friendlies·
Ecuador crest
EcuadorHOME
2:1
Match Finished
HT 1-0
Saudi Arabia crest
Saudi ArabiaAWAY
Sun, May 31 · 00:00 UTCSports Illustrated Stadium13°CRefereePierre-Luc Lauziere, Canada◆ SPX ✓ Hit

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 3 out of 5 confidence

Home

Ecuador

50%

Draw

Draw

27%

Away

Saudi Arabia

23%

Model call: Ecuador

Expected goals: 1.3—0.8(total 2.0)
Upset risk: 4/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%—48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✓ HitFinal score · graded Jun 1

Ecuador

2

FT

Saudi Arabia

1

Model called (T−24h)

Ecuador (49%)

Actually happened

Ecuador (49%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Ecuador

4-2-3-1
  1. Moisés RamírezG
  2. Pervis EstupinanD
  3. F. TorresD
  4. J. PorozoD
  5. J. HurtadoD
  6. A. ValenciaM
  7. D. CastilloM
  8. N. AnguloM
  9. Player 540961
  10. J. ZamoraM
  11. J. CaicedoF

Saudi Arabia

4-4-2
  1. Mohammed Al OwaisG
  2. Moteb Al HarbiD
  3. Hassan TambaktiD
  4. Abdulelah Al AmriD
  5. Nawaf BoushalD
  6. Salem Al DawsariM
  7. Abdullah Al KhaibariM
  8. Mohammed KannoM
  9. Mohammed Abu Al ShamatM
  10. Musab Al JuwayrF
  11. Firas Al BrikanF

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Lineup Absence Impact

Key absentees and how unbalanced the missing-star count is between sides.

Ecuador
0stars missing
Saudi Arabia
1star missing

Ecuador · key absences

  • A. Valencia

    Midfielder · 475 days out

    6.96

  • L. Realpe

    Defender · 655 days out

    6.83

  • K. Paez

    Midfielder · 497 days out

    6.75

Saudi Arabia · key absences

  • Hassan Tambakti

    Defender · 347 days out

    7.10

  • Abdullah Al Hamdan

    Attacker · 350 days out

    6.83
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Beyond Match Outcome

Forward-looking analytics on corners and cards — beyond the 1X2 result market.

Corners

Expected total
9.0expected corners
Home 5.2Away 3.7
Over 9.5 corners41%
Over 10.5 corners29%

SPX commitment — no bookmaker odds shown

Cards

Expected total
3.7expected cards
Average ref
Home 1.8Away 1.9
Over 4.5 cards31%
Over 5.5 cards17%

SPX commitment — no bookmaker odds shown

SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Shot Creation Profile

Not enough recent-match history to build a shot-creation profile for these teams yet.

SPX Quant Engine

Shot Quality

Each bubble = one player. Size scales with the SPX shot-quality estimate.

EcuadorSaudi Arabia
0123450'15'30'45'60'75'90'Minutes playedShotsMohammed Abu Al Shamat (M) — 3 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.12Salem Al Dawsari (M) — 2 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.22D. Castillo (M) — 2 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.081A. Valencia (M) — 2 shots, 2 on target, 1 goal, est. SPX xG 0.36J. Zamora (M) — 2 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.08Hassan Tambakti (D) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04Firas Al Brikan (F) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04Nasser Al Dawsari (M) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.041Sultan Mandash (F) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 1 goal, est. SPX xG 0.18Saleh Abu Al Shamat (F) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.041J. Porozo (D) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 1 goal, est. SPX xG 0.18N. Angulo (M) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.18J. Caicedo (F) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.18J. Alcivar (M) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.18
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Pass Network

Pass volume vs completion rate. Bubble size scales with minutes played.

EcuadorSaudi Arabia
0%25%50%75%100%020406080Passes attemptedAccuracyMohammed Al Owais (G) — 21 passes, 18 completed (86%), 0 keyNawaf Boushal (D) — 49 passes, 40 completed (82%), 1 keyAbdulelah Al Amri (D) — 41 passes, 35 completed (85%), 0 keyHassan Tambakti (D) — 72 passes, 64 completed (89%), 0 keyMoteb Al Harbi (D) — 58 passes, 45 completed (78%), 0 keyMohammed Abu Al Shamat (M) — 35 passes, 28 completed (80%), 1 keyMohammed Kanno (M) — 49 passes, 43 completed (88%), 3 keyAbdullah Al Khaibari (M) — 30 passes, 24 completed (80%), 0 keySalem Al Dawsari (M) — 34 passes, 29 completed (85%), 1 keyFiras Al Brikan (F) — 16 passes, 13 completed (81%), 1 keyMusab Al Juwayr (F) — 69 passes, 57 completed (83%), 0 keyAli Lajami (D) — 33 passes, 31 completed (94%), 0 keyNasser Al Dawsari (M) — 17 passes, 14 completed (82%), 0 keySultan Mandash (F) — 11 passes, 8 completed (73%), 0 keySaleh Abu Al Shamat (F) — 2 passes, 2 completed (100%), 1 keyAlaa Hejji (M) — 5 passes, 5 completed (100%), 1 keyAbdullah Al Hamdan (F) — 6 passes, 2 completed (33%), 0 keyKhalid Al Ghannam (F) — 5 passes, 4 completed (80%), 1 keyHassan Kadesh (D) — 3 passes, 2 completed (67%), 0 keyMoisés Ramírez (G) — 41 passes, 30 completed (73%), 0 keyJ. Hurtado (D) — 19 passes, 16 completed (84%), 0 keyJ. Porozo (D) — 48 passes, 45 completed (94%), 0 keyF. Torres (D) — 75 passes, 66 completed (88%), 0 keyPervis Estupinan (D) — 40 passes, 34 completed (85%), 0 keyD. Castillo (M) — 26 passes, 20 completed (77%), 1 keyA. Valencia (M) — 33 passes, 29 completed (88%), 1 keyJ. Zamora (M) — 22 passes, 17 completed (77%), 4 keyPlayer #476121 (M) — 6 passes, 6 completed (100%), 1 keyN. Angulo (M) — 13 passes, 10 completed (77%), 0 keyJ. Caicedo (F) — 5 passes, 1 completed (20%), 0 keyJ. Alcivar (M) — 22 passes, 21 completed (95%), 0 keyÁngelo Preciado (D) — 18 passes, 16 completed (89%), 2 keyKevin Rodriguez (F) — 14 passes, 13 completed (93%), 0 keyK. Paez (M) — 12 passes, 12 completed (100%), 0 keyJ. Mercado (F) — 7 passes, 6 completed (86%), 0 keyY. Medina (D) — 5 passes, 4 completed (80%), 0 key
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-09T02:36:46.517Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

2bc0faf27ca3a6f34a74d0d149f6f77c440a948ca608c83b9f14c12ecba56c2d
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.01 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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