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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1544369

CONCACAF Champions League·
Toluca crest
TolucaHOME
1:1
Match Finished
HT 0-0
Tigres UANL crest
Tigres UANLAWAY
Sun, May 31 · 00:00 UTCEstadio Nemesio DiezRefereeIsmail Elfath, USA◆ SPX ✗ Miss

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 4 out of 5 confidence

Home

Toluca

61%

Draw

Draw

21%

Away

Tigres UANL

18%

Model call: Toluca

Expected goals: 1.4—0.6(total 2.1)
Upset risk: 4/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%—48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✗ MissFinal score · graded Jun 1

Toluca

1

FT

Tigres UANL

1

Model called (T−24h)

Toluca (61%)

Actually happened

Draw (21%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Toluca

4-1-4-1
  1. L. GarcíaG
  2. E. LópezD
  3. F. PereiraD
  4. B. MéndezD
  5. S. SimónD
  6. F. RomeroM
  7. N. CastroM
  8. M. RuizM
  9. J. AnguloM
  10. HelinhoM
  11. PaulinhoF

Tigres UANL

4-2-3-1
  1. N. GuzmánG
  2. Jesus Angel Garza GarciaD
  3. Joaquim HenriqueD
  4. RômuloD
  5. V. LoroñaD
  6. F. GorriaránM
  7. C. AraújoM
  8. O. HerreraM
  9. Á. CorreaM
  10. D. LainezM
  11. R. AguirreF

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Lineup Absence Impact

Key absentees and how unbalanced the missing-star count is between sides.

Toluca
0stars missing
Tigres UANL
0stars missing

Toluca · key absences

No notable absences reported

Tigres UANL · key absences

  • C. Araújo

    Midfielder · 274 days out

    6.80

  • R. Guerrero

    Defender · 622 days out

    6.69
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Beyond Match Outcome

Forward-looking analytics on corners and cards — beyond the 1X2 result market.

Corners

Expected total
8.7expected corners
Home 4.4Away 4.3
Over 9.5 corners37%
Over 10.5 corners26%

SPX commitment — no bookmaker odds shown

Cards

Expected total
4.1expected cards
Average ref
Home 2.0Away 2.1
Over 4.5 cards39%
Over 5.5 cards23%

SPX commitment — no bookmaker odds shown

SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Shot Creation Profile

Not enough recent-match history to build a shot-creation profile for these teams yet.

SPX Quant Engine

Shot Quality

Each bubble = one player. Size scales with the SPX shot-quality estimate.

TolucaTigres UANL
0123450'15'30'45'60'75'90'Minutes playedShotsÁ. Correa (M) — 3 shots, 2 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.40N. Castro (M) — 3 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.261Joaquim Henrique (D) — 2 shots, 1 on target, 1 goal, est. SPX xG 0.22Jesus Angel Garza Garcia (D) — 2 shots, 2 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.36C. Araújo (M) — 2 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.08O. Herrera (M) — 2 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.22Helinho (M) — 2 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.22Paulinho (F) — 2 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.08Rômulo (D) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.18D. Lainez (M) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04R. Aguirre (F) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04A. Gignac (F) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.18E. López (D) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.041J. Díaz (M) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 1 goal, est. SPX xG 0.18S. Córdova (M) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.18
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Pass Network

Pass volume vs completion rate. Bubble size scales with minutes played.

TolucaTigres UANL
0%25%50%75%100%020406080Passes attemptedAccuracyN. Guzmán (G) — 60 passes, 39 completed (65%), 0 keyV. Loroña (D) — 16 passes, 14 completed (88%), 0 keyRômulo (D) — 59 passes, 48 completed (81%), 0 keyJoaquim Henrique (D) — 59 passes, 48 completed (81%), 0 keyJesus Angel Garza Garcia (D) — 41 passes, 35 completed (85%), 1 keyC. Araújo (M) — 35 passes, 35 completed (100%), 0 keyF. Gorriarán (M) — 72 passes, 64 completed (89%), 1 keyD. Lainez (M) — 31 passes, 24 completed (77%), 2 keyÁ. Correa (M) — 29 passes, 22 completed (76%), 2 keyO. Herrera (M) — 13 passes, 9 completed (69%), 1 keyR. Aguirre (F) — 10 passes, 10 completed (100%), 1 keyM. Flores (M) — 4 passes, 4 completed (100%), 1 keyM. Farfan (D) — 26 passes, 19 completed (73%), 0 keyJ. Brunetta (M) — 33 passes, 31 completed (94%), 2 keyD. Sánchez (F) — 11 passes, 10 completed (91%), 0 keyA. Gignac (F) — 7 passes, 6 completed (86%), 0 keyJ. Purata (D) — 3 passes, 2 completed (67%), 0 keyL. García (G) — 31 passes, 16 completed (52%), 0 keyS. Simón (D) — 53 passes, 40 completed (75%), 3 keyB. Méndez (D) — 47 passes, 38 completed (81%), 0 keyF. Pereira (D) — 64 passes, 59 completed (92%), 0 keyE. López (D) — 25 passes, 20 completed (80%), 1 keyF. Romero (M) — 50 passes, 40 completed (80%), 0 keyHelinho (M) — 33 passes, 25 completed (76%), 1 keyJ. Angulo (M) — 6 passes, 6 completed (100%), 0 keyM. Ruiz (M) — 12 passes, 12 completed (100%), 1 keyN. Castro (M) — 24 passes, 17 completed (71%), 1 keyPaulinho (F) — 11 passes, 10 completed (91%), 2 keyF. Arce (M) — 27 passes, 24 completed (89%), 1 keyP. Pérez (M) — 8 passes, 4 completed (50%), 1 keyD. Barbosa (D) — 10 passes, 8 completed (80%), 0 keyJ. Díaz (M) — 6 passes, 4 completed (67%), 0 keyM. Isais (D) — 6 passes, 3 completed (50%), 0 keyS. Córdova (M) — 5 passes, 3 completed (60%), 0 key
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-09T02:36:46.517Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

1ff8931ce37cd882c7fe650b6dcafe83bf259a5e9890ece254ac9ac34cac487a
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.01 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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