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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1546389

J2/J3 League·
Montedio Yamagata crest
Montedio YamagataHOME
1:2
Match Finished
HT 0-0
Matsumoto Yamaga crest
Matsumoto YamagaAWAY
Sun, May 31 · 05:00 UTCND Soft Stadium Yamagata26°C◆ SPX ✗ Miss

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 2 out of 5 confidence

Home

Montedio Yamagata

45%

Draw

Draw

26%

Away

Matsumoto Yamaga

30%

Lean: Montedio Yamagata

Expected goals: 1.1—0.9(total 2.0)
Upset risk: 5/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%—48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✗ MissFinal score · graded Jun 1

Montedio Yamagata

1

FT

Matsumoto Yamaga

2

Model called (T−24h)

Montedio Yamagata (45%)

Actually happened

Matsumoto Yamaga (29%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Montedio Yamagata

  1. T. Heward-Belle
  2. Player 555700
  3. Player 555840
  4. K. Sakamoto
  5. Player 555804
  6. T. Terayama
  7. K. Yoshio
  8. Player 33374
  9. R. Yokoyama
  10. Player 182293
  11. Player 304921

Matsumoto Yamaga

  1. Player 33753
  2. Player 206968
  3. Player 639406
  4. Player 201070
  5. Player 369636
  6. I. Oda
  7. Player 494683
  8. Player 537728
  9. Player 537789
  10. Player 537735
  11. Player 317223

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Lineup Absence Impact

Lineup confirmed shortly before kickoff

SPX Quant Engine

Beyond Match Outcome

Predictions not yet available for this match

SPX Quant Engine

Shot Creation Profile

Not enough recent-match history to build a shot-creation profile for these teams yet.

SPX Quant Engine

Shot Quality

Shot quality data unavailable for this fixture

SPX Quant Engine

Pass Network

Pass network data unavailable for this fixture

SPX Quant Engine

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-09T02:36:46.517Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

1327a7037854465ec6bff048e7006b8c29de07b6d4d7dd3d5d91a72a503d815e
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.01 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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