Skip to main content
← All reports

SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1546398

J1 League·
Fagiano Okayama crest
Fagiano OkayamaHOME
1:1
Match Finished
HT 0-0
Urawa crest
UrawaAWAY
Sun, May 31 · 05:00 UTCCity Light Stadium32°CRefereeHiroki Kasahara, Japan◆ SPX ✗ Miss

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 3 out of 5 confidence

Home

Fagiano Okayama

51%

Draw

Draw

22%

Away

Urawa

26%

Model call: Fagiano Okayama

Expected goals: 1.3—0.8(total 2.0)
Upset risk: 4/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%—48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✗ MissFinal score · graded Jun 1

Fagiano Okayama

1

FT

Urawa

1

Model called (T−24h)

Fagiano Okayama (52%)

Actually happened

Draw (23%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Fagiano Okayama

3-4-2-1
  1. L. MoserG
  2. Y. SuzukiD
  3. Y. TatsutaD
  4. Player 304791D
  5. T. YamaneM
  6. Player 546899M
  7. E. MiyamotoM
  8. H. MotoyamaM
  9. A. EsakaF
  10. T. KimuraF
  11. LucaoF

Urawa

4-4-2
  1. S. NishikawaG
  2. Y. NaganumaD
  3. Kenta NemotoD
  4. Y. MiyamotoD
  5. Danilo BozaD
  6. S. NakajimaM
  7. S. GustafsonM
  8. K. YasuiM
  9. T. SekineM
  10. Renji HidanoF
  11. Ado OnaiwuF

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Lineup Absence Impact

Key absentees and how unbalanced the missing-star count is between sides.

Fagiano Okayama
0stars missing
Urawa
0stars missing

Fagiano Okayama · key absences

No notable absences reported

Urawa · key absences

  • K. Shibato

    Midfielder · 625 days out

    6.76
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Beyond Match Outcome

Forward-looking analytics on corners and cards — beyond the 1X2 result market.

Corners

Expected total
9.9expected corners
Home 5.3Away 4.6
Over 9.5 corners53%
Over 10.5 corners40%

SPX commitment — no bookmaker odds shown

Cards

Expected total
2.4expected cards
Average ref
Home 1.3Away 1.2
Over 4.5 cards10.0%
Over 5.5 cards3.8%

SPX commitment — no bookmaker odds shown

SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Shot Creation Profile

Not enough recent-match history to build a shot-creation profile for these teams yet.

SPX Quant Engine

Shot Quality

Each bubble = one player. Size scales with the SPX shot-quality estimate.

Fagiano OkayamaUrawa
0123450'15'30'45'60'75'90'Minutes playedShots1Lucao (F) — 4 shots, 3 on target, 1 goal, est. SPX xG 0.58Ado Onaiwu (F) — 2 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.08E. Miyamoto (M) — 2 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.22A. Esaka (F) — 2 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.22Player #159853 (F) — 2 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.221Danilo Boza (D) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 1 goal, est. SPX xG 0.18Kenta Nemoto (D) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.18K. Yasui (M) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04Renji Hidano (F) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.18H. Komori (F) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04Player #304791 (D) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04Y. Tatsuta (D) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04Player #546899 (M) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04T. Yamane (M) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Pass Network

Pass volume vs completion rate. Bubble size scales with minutes played.

Fagiano OkayamaUrawa
0%25%50%75%100%020406080Passes attemptedAccuracyS. Nishikawa (G) — 28 passes, 17 completed (61%), 0 keyDanilo Boza (D) — 43 passes, 38 completed (88%), 2 keyY. Miyamoto (D) — 83 passes, 74 completed (89%), 0 keyKenta Nemoto (D) — 62 passes, 47 completed (76%), 0 keyY. Naganuma (D) — 25 passes, 20 completed (80%), 0 keyT. Sekine (M) — 12 passes, 7 completed (58%), 0 keyK. Yasui (M) — 52 passes, 49 completed (94%), 0 keyS. Gustafson (M) — 44 passes, 41 completed (93%), 0 keyS. Nakajima (M) — 38 passes, 34 completed (89%), 4 keyAdo Onaiwu (F) — 19 passes, 15 completed (79%), 0 keyRenji Hidano (F) — 8 passes, 7 completed (88%), 0 keyT. Kaneko (M) — 13 passes, 7 completed (54%), 0 keyR. Watanabe (M) — 22 passes, 19 completed (86%), 0 keyY. Matsuo (M) — 6 passes, 4 completed (67%), 1 keyH. Komori (F) — 4 passes, 4 completed (100%), 0 keyMatheus Sávio (M) — 2 passes, 2 completed (100%), 0 keyL. Moser (G) — 16 passes, 5 completed (31%), 0 keyPlayer #304791 (D) — 22 passes, 18 completed (82%), 2 keyY. Tatsuta (D) — 30 passes, 24 completed (80%), 1 keyY. Suzuki (D) — 26 passes, 21 completed (81%), 1 keyH. Motoyama (M) — 19 passes, 17 completed (89%), 2 keyE. Miyamoto (M) — 38 passes, 32 completed (84%), 2 keyPlayer #546899 (M) — 33 passes, 30 completed (91%), 0 keyT. Yamane (M) — 22 passes, 17 completed (77%), 1 keyT. Kimura (F) — 28 passes, 21 completed (75%), 1 keyA. Esaka (F) — 22 passes, 19 completed (86%), 1 keyLucao (F) — 11 passes, 8 completed (73%), 2 keyK. Shirai (D) — 8 passes, 5 completed (63%), 1 keyPlayer #159853 (F) — 8 passes, 7 completed (88%), 0 keyR. Sueyoshi (M) — 5 passes, 5 completed (100%), 0 keyJ. Nishikawa (M) — 5 passes, 3 completed (60%), 0 keyK. Abe (D) — 7 passes, 7 completed (100%), 0 key
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-09T02:36:46.517Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

7bbf98908d8198cd07085fc30ca881097ea8db73545b7ac65ed6f3d794bbaf27
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.01 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

Verify yourself via the API.

How the model works →