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SPX Quant Engine · Match Research Note · #1546399

J1 League·
Shimizu S-pulse crest
Shimizu S-pulseHOME
1:1
Match Finished
HT 0-0
Yokohama F. Marinos crest
Yokohama F. MarinosAWAY
Sun, May 31 · 05:00 UTCIAI Stadium Nihondaira27°CRefereeKoei Koya, Japan◆ SPX ✗ Miss

◆ SPX Quant Forecast

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 4 out of 5 confidence

Home

Shimizu S-pulse

63%

Draw

Draw

23%

Away

Yokohama F. Marinos

15%

Model call: Shimizu S-pulse

Expected goals: 1.5—0.6(total 2.1)
Upset risk: 3/10

Probability Evolution

How model confidence shifts across the 8-stage match lifecycle

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%—48h24hPreXI30'HT60'75'
7 premium stages hidden — see the full trajectory through every information event.Upgrade
✗ MissFinal score · graded Jun 1

Shimizu S-pulse

1

FT

Yokohama F. Marinos

1

Model called (T−24h)

Shimizu S-pulse (63%)

Actually happened

Draw (23%)

Verdict graded against the T-24h locked probability. Click the stage tabs above to compare how the probability evolved.

Match Analysis

Timeline, stats, lineups, player ratings and AI insights — live during the match.

SPX xG

ⓘ

Lineup Analysis

Shimizu S-pulse

4-3-3
  1. T. UmedaG
  2. Mateus BrunettiD
  3. Y. HondaD
  4. J. SumiyoshiD
  5. Y. YoshidaD
  6. Y. ShimamotoM
  7. Matheus BuenoM
  8. M. YumibaM
  9. K. MatsuzakiF
  10. Oh Se-HunF
  11. K. KozukaF

Yokohama F. Marinos

  1. Park Il-GyuG
  2. T. InoueD
  3. Jeison QuiñónesD
  4. R. TsunodaD
  5. R. KatoD
  6. R. YamaneM
  7. K. WatanabeM
  8. T. KondoM
  9. J. AmanoM
  10. Yuri AraujoM
  11. K. TanimuraF

Both sides named an XI close to their recent baseline.

Post-Match Deep Analytics

Key absences, beyond-outcome calls and per-player tactical visuals — the shot-based panels finalize from official match data after full-time.

Lineup Absence Impact

Key absentees and how unbalanced the missing-star count is between sides.

Shimizu S-pulse
0stars missing
Yokohama F. Marinos
0stars missing

Shimizu S-pulse · key absences

No notable absences reported

Yokohama F. Marinos · key absences

No notable absences reported

SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Beyond Match Outcome

Forward-looking analytics on corners and cards — beyond the 1X2 result market.

Corners

Expected total
10.5expected corners
Home 5.1Away 5.4
Over 9.5 corners61%
Over 10.5 corners48%

SPX commitment — no bookmaker odds shown

Cards

Expected total
3.0expected cards
Average ref
Home 1.4Away 1.6
Over 4.5 cards18%
Over 5.5 cards7.9%

SPX commitment — no bookmaker odds shown

SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Shot Creation Profile

Not enough recent-match history to build a shot-creation profile for these teams yet.

SPX Quant Engine

Shot Quality

Each bubble = one player. Size scales with the SPX shot-quality estimate.

Shimizu S-pulseYokohama F. Marinos
0123450'15'30'45'60'75'90'Minutes playedShotsM. Yumiba (M) — 2 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.08Oh Se-Hun (F) — 2 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.08K. Matsuzaki (F) — 2 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.081K. Tanimura (F) — 2 shots, 2 on target, 1 goal, est. SPX xG 0.36Mateus Brunetti (D) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.041K. Kozuka (F) — 1 shots, 1 on target, 1 goal, est. SPX xG 0.18K. Kitagawa (F) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04Yuri Araujo (M) — 1 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals, est. SPX xG 0.04
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Pass Network

Pass volume vs completion rate. Bubble size scales with minutes played.

Shimizu S-pulseYokohama F. Marinos
0%25%50%75%100%0102030405060Passes attemptedAccuracyT. Umeda (G) — 33 passes, 24 completed (73%), 0 keyY. Yoshida (D) — 26 passes, 19 completed (73%), 2 keyJ. Sumiyoshi (D) — 40 passes, 29 completed (73%), 0 keyY. Honda (D) — 34 passes, 22 completed (65%), 0 keyMateus Brunetti (D) — 53 passes, 36 completed (68%), 1 keyM. Yumiba (M) — 30 passes, 18 completed (60%), 2 keyMatheus Bueno (M) — 50 passes, 40 completed (80%), 0 keyY. Shimamoto (M) — 18 passes, 13 completed (72%), 0 keyK. Kozuka (F) — 17 passes, 10 completed (59%), 0 keyOh Se-Hun (F) — 27 passes, 16 completed (59%), 1 keyK. Matsuzaki (F) — 18 passes, 13 completed (72%), 1 keyCapixaba (M) — 11 passes, 8 completed (73%), 1 keyK. Kitagawa (F) — 6 passes, 5 completed (83%), 0 keyM. Nishihara (M) — 6 passes, 6 completed (100%), 0 keyS. Takagi (D) — 6 passes, 5 completed (83%), 0 keyR. Ohata (M) — 4 passes, 2 completed (50%), 0 keyPark Il-Gyu (G) — 45 passes, 21 completed (47%), 0 keyT. Inoue (D) — 17 passes, 10 completed (59%), 0 keyJeison Quiñónes (D) — 40 passes, 27 completed (68%), 0 keyR. Tsunoda (D) — 32 passes, 25 completed (78%), 0 keyR. Kato (D) — 14 passes, 11 completed (79%), 0 keyR. Yamane (M) — 20 passes, 18 completed (90%), 0 keyK. Watanabe (M) — 26 passes, 16 completed (62%), 0 keyT. Kondo (M) — 11 passes, 6 completed (55%), 0 keyJ. Amano (M) — 25 passes, 17 completed (68%), 1 keyYuri Araujo (M) — 8 passes, 4 completed (50%), 0 keyK. Tanimura (F) — 10 passes, 5 completed (50%), 0 keyJ. Croux (F) — 8 passes, 4 completed (50%), 0 keyPlayer #544950 (F) — 9 passes, 7 completed (78%), 0 keyT. Kimura (M) — 7 passes, 6 completed (86%), 0 key
SPX Quant EngineSPX commitment: no bookmaker odds used

Integrity Lock

This report's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-09T02:36:46.517Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

733fb8226f9379a368aa3d17cb96cf9901b83654dcf10a56220d669f1cc3ff99
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Model v4.01 · Public beta: every published forecast is timestamped and model-versioned. When the beta period ends (June 2027), per-fixture pre-kickoff forecasts become immutable under our SHA256 audit policy.

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