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Probabilistic Analysis

Match Predictions

Every fixture is analysed by the SPX AI Quant Prediction Model — Dixon-Coles + Elo (Davidson 3-way) + xG-Poisson, blended with per-league optimal weights and reviewed by an AI contextual layer. Each prediction is locked with a SHA256 hash before kickoff— you can verify the forecast wasn't changed after the result.

How the model works →Track record · 53% · 2747 graded

Showing 55 of 55

Sat, Jun 6·1:00 AM ET
JEF United Chiba crestJEF United ChibavsAvispa Fukuoka crestAvispa Fukuoka

J1 League · 19th place

5 out of 5 confidence

35%
27%
38%
Lean:AWAY· close call (3pp margin)·xG 4.0·◆ Pre-match
Sat, Jun 6·1:00 AM ET
Kashima crestKashimavsVissel Kobe crestVissel Kobe

J1 League · Final

5 out of 5 confidence

25%
25%
50%
Model pick:AWAY·xG 4.2·◆ Pre-match ↑ 2pp
Sat, Jun 6·1:00 AM ET
FC Tokyo crestFC TokyovsCerezo Osaka crestCerezo Osaka

J1 League · 3rd place

5 out of 5 confidence

53%
26%
21%
Model pick:HOME·xG 4.0·◆ Pre-match
Sat, Jun 6·2:00 AM ET
Machida Zelvia crestMachida ZelviavsNagoya Grampus crestNagoya Grampus

J1 League · 5th place

5 out of 5 confidence

55%
28%
17%
Model pick:HOME·xG 3.4·◆ T−24h
Sat, Jun 6·2:00 AM ET
Mito Hollyhock crestMito HollyhockvsV-varen Nagasaki crestV-varen Nagasaki

J1 League · 17th place

5 out of 5 confidence

33%
34%
33%
Lean:DRAW· close call (1pp margin)·xG 2.4·◆ T−24h
Sat, Jun 6·3:00 AM ET
Urawa crestUrawavsFagiano Okayama crestFagiano Okayama

J1 League · 11th place

5 out of 5 confidence

45%
28%
27%
Model pick:HOME·xG 3.1·◆ T−24h
Sat, Jun 6·3:00 AM ET
Tokyo Verdy crestTokyo VerdyvsGamba Osaka crestGamba Osaka

J1 League · 9th place

5 out of 5 confidence

21%
25%
54%
Model pick:AWAY·xG 3.0·◆ T−24h
Sat, Jun 6·3:30 AM ET
China PR U23 crestChina PR U23vsTajikistan U23 crestTajikistan U23

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

16%
41%
44%
Lean:AWAY· close call (3pp margin)·xG 1.3·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·4:00 AM ET
Yokohama F. Marinos crestYokohama F. MarinosvsShimizu S-pulse crestShimizu S-pulse

J1 League · 13th place

5 out of 5 confidence

46%
28%
26%
Model pick:HOME·xG 3.8·◆ T−24h
Sat, Jun 6·5:00 AM ET
Kashiwa Reysol crestKashiwa ReysolvsKyoto Sanga crestKyoto Sanga

J1 League · 15th place

5 out of 5 confidence

84%
11%
Model pick:HOME·xG 7.3·◆ T−24h
Sat, Jun 6·5:00 AM ET
Czech Republic U18 crestCzech Republic U18vsRomania U18 crestRomania U18

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

75%
19%
Model pick:HOME·xG 2.7·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·6:00 AM ET
Kawasaki Frontale crestKawasaki FrontalevsSanfrecce Hiroshima crestSanfrecce Hiroshima

J1 League · 7th place

5 out of 5 confidence

25%
28%
47%
Model pick:AWAY·xG 3.6·◆ T−24h
Sat, Jun 6·6:00 AM ET
Vanuatu crestVanuatuvsFiji crestFiji

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

68%
24%
Model pick:HOME·xG 2.8·◆ Pre-match

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·7:00 AM ET
Thailand U23 crestThailand U23vsKorea Republic U23 crestKorea Republic U23

Friendlies · Friendly International

5 out of 5 confidence

51%
27%
23%
Model pick:HOME·xG 4.1·◆ T−24h
Sat, Jun 6·7:30 AM ET
Myanmar crestMyanmarvsGuam crestGuam

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

65%
20%
15%
Model pick:HOME·xG 4.6·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·8:00 AM ET
Ethiopia crestEthiopiavsMalawi crestMalawi

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

45%
35%
21%
Lean:HOME· close call (10pp margin)·xG 1.5·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·9:00 AM ET
Belgium crestBelgiumvsTunisia crestTunisia

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

83%
11%
Model pick:HOME·xG 12.7·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·10:00 AM ET
Azerbaijan U21 crestAzerbaijan U21vsBahrain U20 crestBahrain U20

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

46%
27%
28%
Model pick:HOME·xG 2.8·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·10:00 AM ET
Estonia U19 crestEstonia U19vsLithuania U19 crestLithuania U19

Friendlies · Friendly International

5 out of 5 confidence

15%
27%
58%
Model pick:AWAY·xG 3.0·◆ T−24h
Sat, Jun 6·10:30 AM ET
Palestine crestPalestinevsKenya crestKenya

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

39%
29%
33%
Lean:HOME· close call (6pp margin)·xG 2.4·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·10:30 AM ET
Kyrgyzstan crestKyrgyzstanvsPalestine crestPalestine

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

40%
27%
33%
Lean:HOME· close call (8pp margin)·xG 2.6·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·11:00 AM ET
Jordan U20 crestJordan U20vsPanama U20 crestPanama U20

Friendlies · Friendly International

2 out of 5 confidence

58%
23%
19%
Model pick:HOME·xG 3.6·◆ T−24h

Thin data — forecast shown as free / experimental only

Sat, Jun 6·11:00 AM ET
Kosovo U21 crestKosovo U21vsLuxembourg U21 crestLuxembourg U21

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

74%
17%
Model pick:HOME·xG 4.2·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·11:30 AM ET
Croatia U21 crestCroatia U21vsRepublic of Ireland U21 crestRepublic of Ireland U21

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

72%
22%
Model pick:HOME·xG 2.6·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·12:00 PM ET
Armenia crestArmeniavsKazakhstan crestKazakhstan

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

25%
28%
47%
Model pick:AWAY·xG 2.4·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·12:00 PM ET
Rwanda crestRwandavsComoros crestComoros

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

67%
23%
11%
Model pick:HOME·xG 2.3·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·12:00 PM ET
Sierra Leone crestSierra LeonevsLiberia crestLiberia

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

54%
31%
15%
Model pick:HOME·xG 2.5·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·1:00 PM ET
Gibraltar crestGibraltarvsCayman Islands crestCayman Islands

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

64%
22%
15%
Model pick:HOME·xG 3.0·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·1:45 PM ET
Portugal crestPortugalvsChile crestChile

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

78%
15%
Model pick:HOME·xG 4.8·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·1:45 PM ET
Romania crestRomaniavsWales crestWales

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

56%
27%
17%
Model pick:HOME·xG 3.5·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·2:00 PM ET
Albania crestAlbaniavsLuxembourg crestLuxembourg

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

46%
29%
25%
Model pick:HOME·xG 2.1·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·2:30 PM ET
USA crestUSAvsGermany crestGermany

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

25%
21%
54%
Model pick:AWAY·xG 5.1·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·3:00 PM ET
Australia crestAustraliavsSwitzerland crestSwitzerland

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

60%
22%
18%
Model pick:HOME·xG 3.5·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·3:00 PM ET
Panama crestPanamavsBosnia & Herzegovina crestBosnia & Herzegovina

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

32%
28%
40%
Lean:AWAY· close call (8pp margin)·xG 4.0·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·4:00 PM ET
England crestEnglandvsNew Zealand crestNew Zealand

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

76%
17%
Model pick:HOME·xG 3.9·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·4:00 PM ET
Bolivia crestBoliviavsScotland crestScotland

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

35%
27%
37%
Lean:AWAY· close call (2pp margin)·xG 2.7·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·4:00 PM ET
Qatar crestQatarvsEl Salvador crestEl Salvador

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

33%
30%
37%
Lean:AWAY· close call (5pp margin)·xG 2.1·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·4:00 PM ET
Cape Verde Islands crestCape Verde IslandsvsBermuda crestBermuda

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

77%
16%
Model pick:HOME·xG 4.7·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·6:00 PM ET
Brazil crestBrazilvsEgypt crestEgypt

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

46%
28%
25%
Model pick:HOME·xG 3.6·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·6:00 PM ET
Venezuela crestVenezuelavsTürkiye crestTürkiye

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

31%
25%
44%
Lean:AWAY· close call (13pp margin)·xG 3.3·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·8:00 PM ET
Curaçao crestCuraçaovsAruba crestAruba

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

41%
26%
33%
Lean:HOME· close call (9pp margin)·xG 4.3·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sat, Jun 6·8:00 PM ET
Argentina crestArgentinavsHonduras crestHonduras

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

71%
20%
Model pick:HOME·xG 2.6·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sun, Jun 7·7:00 AM ET
Afghanistan crestAfghanistanvsPakistan crestPakistan

Friendlies · Friendly International

5 out of 5 confidence

20%
33%
48%
Model pick:AWAY·xG 2.5·◆ T−24h
Sun, Jun 7·9:00 AM ET
Liechtenstein crestLiechtensteinvsCyprus crestCyprus

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

12%
22%
66%
Model pick:AWAY·xG 3.8·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sun, Jun 7·9:00 AM ET
Kenya crestKenyavsLesotho crestLesotho

Friendlies · Friendly International

5 out of 5 confidence

60%
29%
11%
Model pick:HOME·xG 2.4·◆ T−24h
Sun, Jun 7·9:00 AM ET
Oman crestOmanvsMozambique crestMozambique

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

51%
31%
18%
Model pick:HOME·xG 2.7·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sun, Jun 7·12:00 PM ET
Maldives crestMaldivesvsBangladesh U23 crestBangladesh U23

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

12%
30%
57%
Model pick:AWAY·xG 1.5·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sun, Jun 7·12:30 PM ET
Denmark crestDenmarkvsUkraine crestUkraine

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

67%
21%
12%
Model pick:HOME·xG 4.3·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sun, Jun 7·2:00 PM ET
Kosovo crestKosovovsAndorra crestAndorra

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

64%
22%
15%
Model pick:HOME·xG 3.0·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sun, Jun 7·2:45 PM ET
Croatia crestCroatiavsSlovenia crestSlovenia

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

49%
29%
22%
Model pick:HOME·xG 3.4·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sun, Jun 7·3:00 PM ET
Greece crestGreecevsItaly crestItaly

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

31%
30%
39%
Lean:AWAY· close call (7pp margin)·xG 3.4·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sun, Jun 7·3:00 PM ET
Morocco crestMoroccovsNorway crestNorway

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

63%
27%
10%
Model pick:HOME·xG 2.7·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sun, Jun 7·4:00 PM ET
Ecuador crestEcuadorvsGuatemala crestGuatemala

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

73%
21%
Model pick:HOME·xG 3.0·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Sun, Jun 7·7:00 PM ET
Colombia crestColombiavsJordan crestJordan

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

62%
21%
16%
Model pick:HOME·xG 5.1·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Mon, Jun 8·8:00 AM ET
Uganda crestUgandavsMadagascar crestMadagascar

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

42%
28%
31%
Lean:HOME· close call (11pp margin)·xG 4.0·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Analytical forecasts only. Our probabilities are calibrated estimates, not guarantees. The model misses genuine upsets by design — see the track record for full transparency.

SoccerPortalX does not provide betting advice. How you use this analysis is entirely up to you and subject to local laws regarding football analytics and probability services.